US Midterms 2026
Type two letters or more. Arrow keys move through the results, Enter opens one, Esc closes.
Recent coverage for OH-12 House.
The article covers the race for Ohio House District 19, featuring candidates Ed Hargate and Nicole Sigurdson vying to succeed incumbent Rep. Phillip Robinson (D-Solon).
HouchinDulaneyShaverThe article covers the race for Ohio House District 31 between Democrat J. Noah Spinner and Republican Mike Kahoe, focusing on issues like property taxes and data centers as central to the contest to succeed Bill Roemer.
The page covers the Ohio House District 11 race featuring incumbent Democrat Crystal Lett (Columbus) seeking a second term versus Republican challenger Shawn Kaeser, a school teacher.
The article covers the race for Ohio House District 35 between Republican Vik Sandhu and Democrat Samantha Salamon.
The article covers a rematch in Ohio House District 62 between Blevins and Schmidt, with Blevins aiming to finally defeat Schmidt in what would be their third contest.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTroy Balderson | 95.4% | 95.0% | 96.6% | 1.6 pts | – | |
| DJerrad Christian | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.6 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Jerrad Christian, an IT specialist and Democrat who was his party's 2024 nominee for the seat, again faces Republican incumbent Troy Balderson in Ohio's 12th congressional district in 2026.
Troy Balderson, a Republican former Ohio state senator who has represented Ohio's 12th congressional district since 2018, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Jerrad Christian, an IT specialist.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Ohio's 12th District margin of victory
| Balderson, 12+ pts | 86.1% | |
| Balderson, 15+ pts | 75.5% | |
| Balderson, 18+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Balderson, 21+ pts | 54.5% | |
| Balderson, 24+ pts | 44.5% | |
| Balderson, 27+ pts | 33.5% | |
| Balderson, 30+ pts | 21.0% | |
| Balderson, 33+ pts | 14.0% | |
| Balderson, 36+ pts | 6.9% |
OH-12 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 2.6% | |
| Republican 0-10% | 1.4% | |
| Republican 10-15% | – | |
| Republican 15-20% | 19.7% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 31.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 14.0% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 14.1% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 4.9% | |
| Republican 40%+ | 2.7% |
Prices which party wins.
Troy Balderson: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 96.0% · $950 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Troy Balderson: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 97.9% · $327 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Troy Balderson
If the House member sworn in for OH-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
