nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

PA-02 House 2026

96.3% DBrendan Boyle leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.8%
Kalshi
98.1%
Spread
2.3 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.8
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for PA-02 House.

  1. Rep. Ortitay bill to bring PA into compliance with federal election law approved by House.

    Topic: A bill sponsored by Rep. Ortitay aimed at bringing Pennsylvania into compliance with federal election law was approved by the Pennsylvania House.

    pro.stateaffairs.comArriaga
  2. House welcomes new Reps. Mazzocco and Tiburcio.

    The article notes that the Pennsylvania House welcomes two new representatives, Mazzocco and Tiburcio. There is no mention of a representative named Jessica Arriaga or a PA-02 seat in the provided content.

    pro.stateaffairs.comArriaga
  3. Special election for vacant House seat set for March 25.

    The article reports that a special election has been scheduled for March 25 to fill a vacant U.S. House seat in Pennsylvania. It does not provide details about the specific district number or candidates in the excerpt.

    pro.stateaffairs.comArriagaFarnhamBradstock
  4. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  5. Pensilvania y Nueva Jersey tendrán contiendas cerradas en distritos con enclaves puertorriqueños

    Candidatura en Pensilvania (PA-02): Jessica Arriaga, puertorriqueña nacida en North Philadelphia, es la rival republicana de Boyle en las elecciones de medio término.

    Publimetro Puerto RicoSmuckerArriagaDrewGaldoHoulahanRabbBoyleBrooks
More coverage 2
  1. Toledo Opera’s Aida at Valentine Theatre this weekend

    Brendan Boyle returns to Toledo Opera as Radamès in Aida at the Valentine Theatre this weekend, continuing his ongoing relationship with the company that began as a Toledo Opera Resident Artist in 2022-23.

    toledofreepress.comBoyle
  2. Experți Congres SUA: Impact negativ al planului fiscal Trump

    Rezumat: Articolul discută impactul negativ al planului fiscal al fostului președinte Trump, citând voci din Congres.

    stireaiasi.roBoyle

Brendan Boyle, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DBrendan Boyle 96.3% 95.8% 98.1% 2.3 pts –
RJessica Arriaga 1.4% 1.2% 1.8% 0.6 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/pa-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-pa-02">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Brendan Boyle

Brendan Boyle

Democratic U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district (since 2019)

Brendan Boyle, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House since 2015 and represented Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district since 2019, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican entrepreneur Jessica Arriaga.

Born 1977 · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Jessica Arriaga

Republican

Jessica Arriaga, a Republican entrepreneur, is the Republican nominee for Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Brendan Boyle in the November general election.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi904 contracts

Pennsylvania's 2nd District margin of victory

Boyle, 33+ pts
94.6%
implied
Boyle, 36+ pts
92.7%
implied
Boyle, 39+ pts
93.0%
Boyle, 42+ pts
85.0%
Boyle, 45+ pts
72.5%
Boyle, 48+ pts
55.5%
Boyle, 51+ pts
37.5%
Boyle, 54+ pts
22.0%
Boyle, 57+ pts
8.9%
Boyle, 60+ pts
4.1%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.1K traded

PA-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
1.4%
Democrat 0-20%
5.8%
Democrat 20-30%
2.6%
Democrat 30-35%
2.0%
Democrat 35-40%
2.5%
Democrat 40-45%
–
Democrat 45-50%
27.0%
Democrat 50-55%
21.1%
Democrat 55-60%
22.6%
Democrat 60%+
7.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$40.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Brendan Boyle: Counted · bid 94.7% / ask 96.9% · $2.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi60 contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Brendan Boyle: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 99.7% · $609 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Brendan Boyle

If the House member sworn in for PA-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Pennsylvania

  1. Pennsylvania GovernorD98%
  2. PA-01 HouseR64%
  3. PA-03 HouseD98%
  4. PA-04 HouseD96%
  5. PA-05 HouseD98%
  6. PA-06 HouseD97%
  7. PA-07 HouseD86%
  8. PA-08 HouseD73%