House · 3 November 2026

PA-05 House 2026

98.3% DMary Gay Scanlon leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 98.2%
Kalshi: 98.3%
Spread: 0.2 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.8
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Mary Gay Scanlon, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DMary Gay Scanlon	98.3%		98.2%	98.3%	0.1 pts	–
RNicholas Manganaro	1.6%		1.7%	1.5%	0.2 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Mary Gay Scanlon

Democratic U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district (since 2019)

Mary Gay Scanlon, a Democrat who has represented Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district in the U.S. House since 2019, faces Republican Nicholas Manganaro, a retired financial professional, in her 2026 bid for reelection.

Born 1959 · Syracuse, New York

Full candidate profile →

Nicholas Manganaro

Republican

Nicholas Manganaro, a retired financial professional, is the Republican nominee for Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Mary Gay Scanlon in the November 3 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi699 contracts

Pennsylvania's 5th District margin of victory

Scanlon, 23+ pts		95.8%
Scanlon, 26+ pts		93.7%
Scanlon, 29+ pts		87.9%
Scanlon, 32+ pts		77.0%
Scanlon, 35+ pts		62.5%
Scanlon, 38+ pts		45.5%
Scanlon, 41+ pts		29.5%
Scanlon, 44+ pts		17.0%
Scanlon, 47+ pts		7.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.5K traded

PA-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.1%
Democrat 0-10%		0.6%
Democrat 10-20%		1.0%
Democrat 20-25%		0.6%
Democrat 25-30%		–
Democrat 30-35%		13.5%
Democrat 35-40%		22.1%
Democrat 40-45%		23.8%
Democrat 45-50%		17.0%
Democrat 50%+		10.9%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$38.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mary Gay Scanlon: Counted · bid 97.5% / ask 98.9% · $623 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.9K contracts traded