US Midterms 2026
Type two letters or more. Arrow keys move through the results, Enter opens one, Esc closes.
Recent coverage for PA-15 House.
Glenn Thompson (PA-15) is referenced as the Republican House Agriculture Committee Chairman who supported chip-enabled EBT cards in principle but blocked a bipartisan upgrade proposal over budget concerns.
Claim: The letter argues Thompson has not delivered meaningful benefits for central Pennsylvania and often pursues policies that hurt constituents.
ThompsonRep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
McBath
Beatty
Harder
Morelle
Joyce
Neguse
Hayes
Solis
Conaway
Reschenthaler
BilirakisThompson
Cisneros
Whitesides
Latimer
Palmer
Amo
Lucas
Burlison
Valadao
Rouzer
Joyce
Strong
Westerman
Pettersen
Mast
Jack
Boyle
Sherman
Knott
Wagner
Mejia
Adams
McDowell
Bean
Correa
Underwood
Castor
Jackson
Wilson
Himes
Jeffries
Davis
Tran
BentzKurdianNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGlenn Thompson | 96.1% | 95.8% | 96.4% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| DRay Bilger | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 0.2 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Glenn Thompson, a Republican who has served in the U.S. House since 2009 and chairs the House Agriculture Committee, is seeking re-election in Pennsylvania's 15th district in 2026 against Democrat Ray Bilger, a former intelligence officer.
Ray Bilger, a Democrat and former intelligence officer, is the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Glenn Thompson in the November general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Pennsylvania's 15th District margin of victory
| Thompson, 23+ pts | 88.1% | |
| Thompson, 26+ pts | 77.5% | |
| Thompson, 29+ pts | 63.5% | |
| Thompson, 32+ pts | 47.5% | |
| Thompson, 35+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Thompson, 38+ pts | 20.0% | |
| Thompson, 41+ pts | 8.7% | |
| Thompson, 44+ pts | 4.0% | |
| Thompson, 47+ pts | 5.5% implied |
PA-15 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.3% | |
| Republican 0-10% | 3.0% | |
| Republican 10-20% | 3.7% | |
| Republican 20-25% | – | |
| Republican 25-30% | 25.5% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 30.5% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 24.0% | |
| Republican 40-45% | – | |
| Republican 45-50% | 1.5% | |
| Republican 50%+ | 4.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Glenn Thompson: Counted · bid 94.9% / ask 96.8% · $1.4K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Glenn Thompson: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 97.4% · $1.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Glenn Thompson
If the House member sworn in for PA-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
