House · 3 November 2026

TN-02 House 2026

96.0% RTim Burchett leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.5%
Kalshi: 96.5%
Spread: 1.6 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Tim Burchett, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RTim Burchett	96.0%		95.5%	96.5%	1.1 pts	–
DMichaela Barnett	3.9%		4.1%	2.5%	1.6 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Michaela Barnett

Democratic

Michaela Barnett, a political organizer and small business owner, is the Democratic nominee for Tennessee's 2nd congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Tim Burchett.

Full candidate profile →

Tim Burchett

Republican U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 2nd congressional district (since 2019)

Tim Burchett, a Republican and former Knox County mayor who has represented Tennessee's 2nd congressional district since 2019, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Michaela Barnett.

Born 1964 · Knoxville, Tennessee

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.2K contracts

Tennessee's 2nd District margin of victory

Burchett, 15+ pts		92.8%
Burchett, 18+ pts		85.5%
Burchett, 21+ pts		75.5%
Burchett, 24+ pts		61.0%
Burchett, 27+ pts		45.0%
Burchett, 30+ pts		29.5%
Burchett, 33+ pts		18.0%
Burchett, 36+ pts		8.0%
Burchett, 39+ pts		4.7%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$10.9K traded

TN-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		5.7%
Republican 0-10%		2.8%
Republican 10-15%		8.5%
Republican 15-20%		15.5%
Republican 20-25%		–
Republican 25-30%		19.5%
Republican 30-35%		10.5%
Republican 35-40%		4.5%
Republican 40%+		5.0%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$34.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Tim Burchett: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 96.0% · $702 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.1K contracts traded