House · 3 November 2026

TX-01 House 2026

96.9% RNathaniel Moran leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 96.6%
Kalshi: 97.1%
Spread: 0.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.6
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Nathaniel Moran, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RNathaniel Moran	96.9%		96.6%	97.1%	0.5 pts	–
DYolanda Prince	2.1%		2.3%	1.8%	0.4 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Nathaniel Moran

Republican U.S. Representative for Texas's 1st congressional district (since 2023)

Nathaniel Moran, a Republican attorney who has represented Texas's 1st congressional district since 2023 and previously served as Smith County judge, faces Democrat Yolanda Prince in his 2026 re-election race.

Born 1974 · Arizona

Full candidate profile →

Yolanda Prince

Democratic

Yolanda Prince, a Democrat and project manager who ran for the Texas House of Representatives in 2018, is her party's 2026 nominee for Texas's 1st congressional district against Republican incumbent Nathaniel Moran.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi921 contracts

Texas's 1st District margin of victory

Moran, 29+ pts		92.3% implied
Moran, 32+ pts		93.8%
Moran, 35+ pts		87.4%
Moran, 38+ pts		77.5%
Moran, 41+ pts		65.5%
Moran, 44+ pts		50.5%
Moran, 47+ pts		35.5%
Moran, 50+ pts		22.5%
Moran, 53+ pts		10.9%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$10.7K traded

TX-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		0.7%
Republican 0-20%		2.4%
Republican 20-30%		5.6%
Republican 30-35%		14.5%
Republican 35-40%		26.5%
Republican 40-45%		25.9%
Republican 45-50%		12.5%
Republican 50-55%		6.0%
Republican 55-60%		–
Republican 60%+		7.8%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$60.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Nathaniel Moran: Counted · bid 96.2% / ask 97.0% · $931 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi8.4K contracts traded