House · 3 November 2026

TX-02 House 2026

93.5% RSteve Toth leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 93.5%
Kalshi: 93.3%
Spread: 0.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: +3.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Steve Toth, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RSteve Toth	93.5%		93.5%	93.3%	0.2 pts	–
DShaun Finnie	6.6%		6.5%	7.2%	0.7 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Shaun Finnie

Democratic

Shaun Finnie, a Democrat and investment banker, is his party's 2026 nominee for Texas's 2nd congressional district, facing Republican state representative Steve Toth, who defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the primary.

Full candidate profile →

Steve Toth

Republican Member of the Texas House of Representatives from the 15th district (since 2019)

Steve Toth, a Republican member of the Texas House of Representatives who defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the 2026 primary, faces Democrat Shaun Finnie, an investment banker, for Texas's 2nd congressional district.

Born 1960 · New York

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.2K contracts

Texas's 2nd District margin of victory

Toth, 2+ pts		84.5%
Toth, 5+ pts		74.5%
Toth, 8+ pts		63.0%
Toth, 11+ pts		48.5%
Toth, 14+ pts		34.5%
Toth, 17+ pts		22.5%
Toth, 20+ pts		13.5%
Toth, 23+ pts		7.5%
Toth, 26+ pts		7.9% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.0K traded

TX-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		4.7%
Republican 0-5%		3.1%
Republican 5-10%		21.0%
Republican 10-15%		31.0%
Republican 15-20%		19.5%
Republican 20-25%		10.0%
Republican 25-30%		1.4%
Republican 30%+		0.1%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$31.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Steve Toth: Counted · bid 93.0% / ask 94.0% · $9.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.6K contracts traded