US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-08 House.
1) The unknowns and jockeying around potential leadership contenders, including Jason Smith (Missouri) and other members who are considering runs or influenced by internal groups like the Republican Study Committee…
The Hill piece analyzes the Texas political dynamic around Hispanic voters and how Republicans have overestimated their loyalty in districts like TX-28 (South Texas) and TX-08.
The opinion piece endorses Brian Babin (six-term Republican) for Texas’ 8th congressional district, noting his strong alignment with Houston interests in Washington and his incumbency remains safe despite some partisan…
U.S. Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher speaks as people gather at Houston City Hall to protest against policies introduced by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, as part of a national action organized by Hands Off!
The piece analyzes the campaign showdown in Texas’s 14th Congressional District between incumbent Randy Weber and challenger Thurman Bartie, focusing on energy expansion policy and the rising cost of living.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJessica Hart Steinmann | 95.8% | 95.5% | 96.5% | 1.1 pts | – | |
| DLaura Jones | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5 pts | – |
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Jessica Hart Steinmann, a Republican attorney, is the Republican nominee for the open seat in Texas's 8th congressional district in 2026, facing Democrat Laura Jones, the district's Democratic nominee in 2022 and 2024.
Laura Jones, a Democrat and former chair of the San Jacinto County Democratic Party, is the Democratic nominee for the open 8th district of Texas in 2026 against Republican Jessica Hart Steinmann.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 8th District margin of victory
| Steinmann, 9+ pts | 88.4% | |
| Steinmann, 12+ pts | 76.5% | |
| Steinmann, 15+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Steinmann, 18+ pts | 53.5% | |
| Steinmann, 21+ pts | 41.5% | |
| Steinmann, 24+ pts | 32.5% | |
| Steinmann, 27+ pts | 24.5% | |
| Steinmann, 30+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Steinmann, 33+ pts | 7.6% |
TX-08 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.2% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 0.5% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 17.0% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 21.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 28.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 17.0% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 14.0% | |
| Republican 30-35% | – | |
| Republican 35%+ | 4.1% |
Prices which party wins.
Jessica Hart Steinmann: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 96.0% · $1.9K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jessica Hart Steinmann: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 97.9% · $701 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jessica Hart Steinmann
If the House member sworn in for TX-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
