House · 3 November 2026

TX-12 House 2026

94.8% RCraig Goldman leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.3%
Kalshi: 94.6%
Spread: 0.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-12 House.

3 stories this week

Top story

Goldman vs. Rodriguez Prilliman in Fort Worth's TX-12 Race

Fort Worth's U.S. House seat is up for grabs again this fall, with first-term Republican Rep.

hoodline.com22h agoPrilliman

Goldman Reynolds

Wednesday, Oct 14
Trump Administration Announces $78 Million In Aid For Texas | News Radio 1200 WOAI
The article reports that the Trump administration announced $78 million in aid for Texas, highlighting statements from Rep. Jake Ellzey (TX-06) emphasizing benefits to rural Texas communities.

woai.iheart.comYesterdayGooden Ellzey Goldman
CMS News: Trump Administration Announces $78 Million for Rural Healthcare Workforce, Chronic Disease Prevention, and Facility Upgrades Across Texas | Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
The CMS press release covers a $78 million funding award aimed at bolstering rural healthcare workforce, chronic disease prevention, and facility upgrades across Texas.

forth.newsYesterdayEllzey Goldman

Craig Goldman, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RCraig Goldman	94.8%		95.3%	94.6%	0.7 pts	–
DAngela Rodriguez Prilliman	4.5%		4.5%	4.5%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tx-12/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tx-12">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Angela Rodriguez Prilliman

Democratic

Angela Rodriguez Prilliman, a Democrat and entrepreneur, is the Democratic nominee for Texas's 12th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Craig Goldman.

Full candidate profile →

Craig Goldman

Republican U.S. Representative for Texas's 12th congressional district (since 2025)

Craig Goldman, a Republican who has represented Texas's 12th congressional district since 2025, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Democrat Angela Rodriguez Prilliman, an entrepreneur.

Born 1968 · Fort Worth, Texas

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi790 contracts

Texas's 12th District margin of victory

Goldman, 1+ pts		95.5%
Goldman, 4+ pts		93.1%
Goldman, 7+ pts		89.1%
Goldman, 10+ pts		78.5%
Goldman, 13+ pts		63.0% implied
Goldman, 16+ pts		51.5%
Goldman, 19+ pts		37.5%
Goldman, 22+ pts		24.5%
Goldman, 25+ pts		13.7%
Goldman, 28+ pts		6.6%
Goldman, 31+ pts		3.6%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$9.9K traded

TX-12 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		3.3%
Republican 0-5%		3.6%
Republican 5-10%		4.0%
Republican 10-15%		28.1%
Republican 15-20%		37.5%
Republican 20-25%		14.1%
Republican 25-30%		18.0%
Republican 30%+		0.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$57.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Craig Goldman: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 96.1% · $705 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.5K contracts traded