House · 3 November 2026

TX-13 House 2026

97.1% RRonny Jackson leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 97.0%
Kalshi: 97.2%
Spread: 0.2 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Ronny Jackson, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RRonny Jackson	97.1%		97.0%	97.2%	0.2 pts	–
DMark Nair	2.4%		2.3%	2.4%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Mark Nair

Democratic

Mark Nair, a Democrat and former Amarillo city councilor, is the Democratic nominee for Texas's 13th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Ronny Jackson.

Full candidate profile →

Ronny Jackson

Republican U.S. Representative for Texas's 13th congressional district (since 2021)

Ronny Jackson, a Republican physician who served as physician to the president from 2013 to 2018 and has represented Texas's 13th congressional district since 2021, faces Democrat Mark Nair in 2026.

Born 1967 · Levelland, Texas

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.1K contracts

Texas's 13th District margin of victory

Jackson, 26+ pts		92.3% implied
Jackson, 29+ pts		92.8%
Jackson, 32+ pts		84.0%
Jackson, 35+ pts		71.5%
Jackson, 38+ pts		53.5%
Jackson, 41+ pts		38.5%
Jackson, 44+ pts		24.5%
Jackson, 47+ pts		12.7%
Jackson, 50+ pts		5.3%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.9K traded

TX-13 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		0.4% implied
Republican 0-15%		1.0%
Republican 15-25%		4.8%
Republican 25-30%		10.1%
Republican 30-35%		22.5%
Republican 35-40%		34.0%
Republican 40-45%		24.5%
Republican 45-50%		–
Republican 50-55%		0.8%
Republican 55%+		5.2%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$19.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Ronny Jackson: Counted · bid 96.2% / ask 97.8% · $1.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi25.5K contracts traded