House · 3 November 2026

TX-17 House 2026

96.1% RPete Sessions leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.9%
Kalshi: 96.3%
Spread: 0.4 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.6
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-17 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

Texas Republicans reveal map aimed at 5-seat pickup

The article reports that Texas Republicans released a redistricting map with the goal of gaining five additional House seats.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoShepard

Yesterday
South Texas will decide who runs Congress, Speaker Mike Johnson says
“I’m not exaggerating, South Texas will literally decide the majority in the Congress,” he said.

Houston ChronicleYesterdayPulido Shepard Bauman
Wednesday, Oct 14
Three candidates seek Texas House District 57 seat in Denton County
The article covers three candidates running for Texas House District 57 in Denton County for the November 3 ballot: Republican incumbent Richard Hayes, Democrat Ray Stith, and Libertarian Darren Hamilton.

denton.cityYesterdayPeña Early Jackson Shepard
Geren runs on record of property tax relief against challenger in Fort Worth Texas House race
Here’s a concise, directly useful summary based on the provided page and your query.

thefortworth.orgYesterdayPeña Jackson Minton Reynolds Shepard
School vouchers, THC divide race for Texas House District 52
Source focus: KUT Radio covers Texas House District 52 race (Round Rock area) between Democrat Chris Jimenez and Republican incumbent Caroline Harris Davila.

KUTYesterdayJackson Sims Shepard

Pete Sessions, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RPete Sessions	96.1%		95.9%	96.3%	0.4 pts	–
DCasey Shepard	4.4%		4.4%	4.3%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tx-17/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tx-17">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Casey Shepard

Democratic

Casey Shepard, a Democratic attorney, is the party's nominee for Texas's 17th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Pete Sessions in the Waco-based seat.

Full candidate profile →

Pete Sessions

Republican U.S. Representative for Texas's 17th congressional district (since 2021)

Pete Sessions, a Republican who represents Texas's 17th congressional district and chaired the House Rules Committee from 2013 to 2019, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Democrat Casey Shepard, an attorney.

Born 1955 · Waco, Texas

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi689 contracts

Texas's 17th District margin of victory

Sessions, 2+ pts		93.0%
Sessions, 5+ pts		85.0%
Sessions, 8+ pts		75.0%
Sessions, 11+ pts		62.0%
Sessions, 14+ pts		46.5%
Sessions, 17+ pts		32.5%
Sessions, 20+ pts		20.5%
Sessions, 23+ pts		10.6%
Sessions, 26+ pts		5.0%
Sessions, 29+ pts		6.4% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$11.1K traded

TX-17 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		1.7%
Republican 0-5%		–
Republican 5-10%		–
Republican 10-15%		34.5%
Republican 15-20%		22.0%
Republican 20-25%		12.5%
Republican 25-30%		4.9%
Republican 30%+		4.0%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$52.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Pete Sessions: Counted · bid 94.7% / ask 97.1% · $1.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi30.1K contracts traded