US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-18 House.
Texas Congressional Candidate Christian D. Menefee gets a photo with poll worker, Jessica Barraza, as he visited a polling location at Acres Homes MultiService Center on Election Day, in Houston, Saturday, Jan. 31, 2026.
MenefeeNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DChristian Menefee | 97.2% | 98.5% | 97.2% | 1.3 pts | – | |
| RRonald Whitfield | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.1 pts | – |
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Christian Menefee, a Democrat and former Harris County attorney who won Texas's 18th congressional district in a January 2026 special election, is seeking a full term against Republican Ronald Whitfield.
Ronald Whitfield is the Republican nominee for Texas's 18th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Christian Menefee, who won the Houston seat in a January 2026 special election runoff.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 18th District margin of victory
| Menefee, 49+ pts | 92.9% implied | |
| Menefee, 52+ pts | 88.1% | |
| Menefee, 55+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Menefee, 58+ pts | 68.5% | |
| Menefee, 61+ pts | 58.5% | |
| Menefee, 64+ pts | 45.5% | |
| Menefee, 67+ pts | 32.5% | |
| Menefee, 70+ pts | 19.5% | |
| Menefee, 73+ pts | 9.8% |
TX-18 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.4% | |
| Democrat 0-35% | 2.2% | |
| Democrat 35-45% | 0.9% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 2.2% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 16.0% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 22.0% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 31.5% | |
| Democrat 65-70% | 9.0% | |
| Democrat 70-75% | 15.0% | |
| Democrat 75%+ | 1.4% |
Prices which party wins.
Christian Menefee: Counted · bid 97.3% / ask 99.7% · $16 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Christian Menefee: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 99.5% · $1.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Christian Menefee
If the House member sworn in for TX-18 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
