House · 3 November 2026

TX-21 House 2026

95.7% RMark Teixeira leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.5%
Kalshi: 95.8%
Spread: 0.2 pts
24h: –
7 days: +3.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-21 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

Ballot Breakdown: Big Country candidates outline education priorities

The provided article is a ballot breakdown focused on education priorities for candidates in the Texas House race, specifically in Abilene’s area.

abilenenews.org17h agoPeña Hook

Wednesday, Oct 14
A look at House District 94 candidates’ war chests going into early voting
The article analyzes campaign fundraising for Texas House District 94, focusing on the race between Republican Cheryl Bean and Democrat Katie O’Brien Duzan.

thefortworth.orgYesterdayPeña Hook Early
Money, Muse differ on education, healthcare and development in Texas House District 2 race | Local News
The article compares the campaigns of Republican incumbent Brent Money and Democrat Fatima Muse in Texas House District 2 (Hunt, Hopkins, and Van Zandt counties).

Greenville Herald-BannerYesterdayHook
James Frank seeks re-election to Texas House District 69
Incumbent: State Rep. James Frank (R-Wichita Falls) is seeking re-election to TX House District 69.

KAUZYesterdayHook
Plesa, Collin County's lone House Democrat, faces former judge George Flint in District 70
The article covers Texas House District 70 race in Collin County, where Democrat Mihaela Plesa of Plano, the county’s lone House Democrat, is defending her seat against Republican George Flint, a former district judge…

planoweekly.newsYesterdayHook

Mark Teixeira, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RMark Teixeira	95.7%		95.5%	95.8%	0.2 pts	–
DKristin Hook	4.0%		4.0%	4.0%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tx-21/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tx-21">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Kristin Hook

Democratic

Kristin Hook is the Democratic nominee for the open seat in Texas's 21st congressional district in 2026, facing Republican Mark Teixeira, a former Major League Baseball player.

Full candidate profile →

Mark Teixeira

Republican

Mark Teixeira, a Republican and former Major League Baseball first baseman who won the 2009 World Series with the New York Yankees, faces Democrat Kristin Hook for Texas's open 21st congressional district seat in 2026.

Born 1980 · Annapolis, Maryland

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi787 contracts

Texas's 21st District margin of victory

Teixeira, 1+ pts		95.7%
Teixeira, 3+ pts		90.3%
Teixeira, 6+ pts		82.0%
Teixeira, 9+ pts		70.5%
Teixeira, 12+ pts		57.5%
Teixeira, 15+ pts		42.5%
Teixeira, 18+ pts		29.5%
Teixeira, 21+ pts		17.5%
Teixeira, 24+ pts		9.6%
Teixeira, 27+ pts		4.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.9K traded

TX-21 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		1.9%
Republican 0-5%		11.5%
Republican 5-10%		36.5%
Republican 10-15%		28.5%
Republican 15-20%		17.0%
Republican 20-25%		7.1%
Republican 25-30%		0.4%
Republican 30%+		4.2%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$69.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mark Teixeira: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 97.0% · $282 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi11.8K contracts traded