US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-25 House.
The explainer covers how the newly drawn congressional maps affect South Texas, including the Valley and districts like TX-28 and TX-35 (with changes to Hidalgo County components).
The article covers House Speaker Mike Johnson’s stop in McAllen, Texas, highlighting the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) as a pivotal battleground for control of the House.
The article profiles Rep. Lloyd Castor? (likely Lloyd Doggett? No: the provided content mentions Castro, a Texas representative) focusing on his re-election prospects in a remapped district and immigration reform…
Source focus: KUT Radio covers Texas House District 52 race (Round Rock area) between Democrat Chris Jimenez and Republican incumbent Caroline Harris Davila.
The article profiles a Republican candidate challenging Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro in Texas’ CD-20 (San Antonio area).
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRoger Williams | 95.1% | 95.0% | 95.6% | 0.6 pts | – | |
| DDione Sims | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.1 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Dione Sims is the Democratic nominee for Texas's 25th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Roger Williams in a district that redistricting redrew for that election.
Roger Williams, a Republican businessman who has represented Texas's 25th congressional district since 2013 and served as Texas secretary of state from 2004 to 2007, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Dione Sims.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 25th District margin of victory
| Williams, 6+ pts | 92.2% | |
| Williams, 9+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Williams, 12+ pts | 74.5% | |
| Williams, 15+ pts | 60.5% | |
| Williams, 18+ pts | 44.5% | |
| Williams, 21+ pts | 31.0% | |
| Williams, 24+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Williams, 27+ pts | 9.7% | |
| Williams, 30+ pts | 4.3% |
TX-25 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 5.3% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.5% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 13.4% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 29.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 21.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 32.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 2.5% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 2.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Roger Williams: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 95.4% · $8.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Roger Williams: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 96.6% · $1.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Roger Williams
If the House member sworn in for TX-25 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
