US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-28 House.
Henry Cuellar’s TX-28 race is highlighted as a Republican-leaning district that has become less favorable for the GOP as money shifts away despite redistricting.
The explainer covers how the newly drawn congressional maps affect South Texas, including the Valley and districts like TX-28 and TX-35 (with changes to Hidalgo County components).
Our colleague Ryan Kelly has more on the voting records of these vulnerable Republicans, including how they may or may not have shifted from 2025.
In TX-28, Republicans canceled about $3 million in ad reservations for the final three weeks, shifting funds to neighboring districts (TX-15 and TX-34).
An article from The Progress (southtexasnews.com) discusses early voting starting Monday and outlines the ballot for U.S. House District 28, featuring candidates Tano E.
CuellarNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHenry Cuellar | 91.6% | 91.5% | 91.7% | 0.2 pts | – | |
| RTano Tijerina | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 0.1 pts | – |
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Henry Cuellar, a Democrat who has represented Texas's 28th congressional district since 2005 and briefly served as Texas secretary of state in 2001, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Tano Tijerina.
Tano Tijerina, a Republican who has served as Webb County judge since 2014, is the party's nominee for Texas's 28th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 28th District margin of victory
| Cuellar, 2+ pts | 94.2% | |
| Cuellar, 5+ pts | 89.2% | |
| Cuellar, 8+ pts | 74.5% | |
| Cuellar, 11+ pts | 66.0% | |
| Cuellar, 14+ pts | 48.5% | |
| Cuellar, 17+ pts | 29.0% | |
| Cuellar, 20+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Cuellar, 23+ pts | 8.0% |
TX-28 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 3%+ | 3.1% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 5.5% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 11.6% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 17.5% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 19.0% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 13.5% | |
| Democrat 12-15% | 10.5% | |
| Democrat 15-18% | 7.6% | |
| Democrat 18-21% | 4.3% | |
| Democrat 21%+ | 6.7% |
Prices which party wins.
Henry Cuellar: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 93.0% · $4.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Henry Cuellar: Counted · bid 91.3% / ask 92.0% · $66.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Henry Cuellar
If the House member sworn in for TX-28 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
