nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

TX-29 House 2026

97.0% DSylvia Garcia leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.2%
Kalshi
96.8%
Spread
0.4 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-29 House.

  1. For Congressional District 29: Sylvia Garcia

    Wrapped around her wrist is a reminder of who she’s fighting for, spelled out in black and white beads: “Dreamers.” Kids who, like her, grew up here and put their faith in the only country they’ve ever known.

    Houston ChronicleFierro

Sylvia Garcia, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DSylvia Garcia 97.0% 97.2% 96.8% 0.4 pts –
RMartha Fierro 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 0.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Martha Fierro

Republican

Martha Fierro, a Republican director, is the party's nominee for Texas's 29th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Sylvia Garcia in the north Houston district.

Sylvia Garcia

Sylvia Garcia

Democratic U.S. Representative for Texas's 29th congressional district (since 2019)

Sylvia Garcia, a Democrat who has represented Texas's 29th congressional district since 2019 and previously served in the Texas Senate, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Martha Fierro.

Born 1950 · San Diego, Texas

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi201 contracts

Texas's 29th District margin of victory

Garcia, 32+ pts
92.9%
Garcia, 35+ pts
84.5%
Garcia, 38+ pts
75.5%
Garcia, 41+ pts
67.5%
Garcia, 44+ pts
58.5%
Garcia, 47+ pts
46.5%
Garcia, 50+ pts
35.5%
Garcia, 53+ pts
23.5%
Garcia, 56+ pts
11.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$10.2K traded

TX-29 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.3%
Democrat 0-20%
5.1%
Democrat 20-30%
4.0%
Democrat 30-35%
4.0%
Democrat 35-40%
–
Democrat 40-45%
–
Democrat 45-50%
15.0%
Democrat 50-55%
26.0%
Democrat 55-60%
4.3%
Democrat 60%+
5.4%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$19.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Sylvia Garcia: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 98.3% · $634 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.0K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Sylvia Garcia: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 97.6% · $1.2K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Sylvia Garcia

If the House member sworn in for TX-29 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Texas

  1. Texas SenateD62%
  2. Texas GovernorR77%
  3. TX-01 HouseR97%
  4. TX-02 HouseR93%
  5. TX-03 HouseR95%
  6. TX-04 HouseR96%
  7. TX-05 HouseR98%
  8. TX-06 HouseR95%