House · 3 November 2026

TX-36 House 2026

94.9% RBrian Babin leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 94.5%
Kalshi: 95.9%
Spread: 1.4 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-36 House.

4 stories this week

Top story

Here are the farmers and ranchers in Congress

Farmers who decide to run will also have the job of educating their fellow members of Congress, Newhouse said.

capitalpress.comYesterday

Yesterday
Brian Babin’s advocacy for Houston merits another term
The opinion piece endorses Brian Babin (six-term Republican) for Texas’ 8th congressional district, noting his strong alignment with Houston interests in Washington and his incumbency remains safe despite some partisan…

Houston Chronicle22h agoBabin Steinmann
For Congress: Laura Jones, Marquette Greene-Scott, Melissa McDonough
U.S. Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher speaks as people gather at Houston City Hall to protest against policies introduced by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, as part of a national action organized by Hands Off!

Houston Chronicle23h agoJones Bonck Babin Steinmann Jackson
Fundraising Update: Representative Brian Babin just disclosed $105.7K of new fundraising
Brian Babin (TX-36) disclosed $105,700 in new fundraising. The update from Quiver Quantitative highlights a recent fundraising figure for Babin, indicating the amount reported in new contributions.

Quiver QuantitativeYesterdayBabin

Brian Babin, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RBrian Babin	94.9%		94.5%	95.9%	1.4 pts	–
DRhonda Hart	3.6%		3.6%	3.7%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Brian Babin

Republican U.S. Representative for Texas's 36th congressional district (since 2015)

Brian Babin, a Republican dentist who has represented Texas's 36th congressional district since 2015, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Rhonda Hart, a homemaker and the party's 2024 nominee in the 14th district.

Born 1948 · Port Arthur, Texas

Full candidate profile →

Rhonda Hart

Democratic

Rhonda Hart, a Democratic homemaker and the party's 2024 nominee for Texas's 14th congressional district, is the Democratic nominee for the 36th district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Brian Babin.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.8K contracts

Texas's 36th District margin of victory

Babin, 6+ pts		91.8%
Babin, 9+ pts		85.0%
Babin, 12+ pts		76.5%
Babin, 15+ pts		64.5%
Babin, 18+ pts		49.0%
Babin, 21+ pts		38.0%
Babin, 24+ pts		27.5%
Babin, 27+ pts		17.0%
Babin, 30+ pts		8.9%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.0K traded

TX-36 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		4.2%
Republican 0-5%		1.7%
Republican 5-10%		14.9%
Republican 10-15%		29.5%
Republican 15-20%		29.5%
Republican 20-25%		15.5%
Republican 25-30%		4.7%
Republican 30%+		6.2%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$48.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Brian Babin: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $2.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi6.3K contracts traded