House · 3 November 2026

VA-08 House 2026

96.4% DDon Beyer leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 95.8%
Kalshi: 97.1%
Spread: 1.3 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.6
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for VA-08 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

‘Wow’: Trump’s new press secretary pummeled after ‘brutally bad’ Sean Hannity grilling

The topic centers on Aaron Fritschner, serving as deputy chief of staff to Congressman Don Beyer (D-VA).

dnyuz.com17h ago

Beyer

Yesterday
Press Release: Don Beyer Says Opposition to Trump Arch Project Is Growing
Don Beyer, the U.S. Representative for Virginia’s 8th District (VA-08), has expressed that opposition to the Trump Arch Project is growing.

Quiver Quantitative23h agoBeyer
Don Beyer: Why you should vote for me
Don Beyer is running for re-election to represent Virginia’s 8th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives.

arlnow.com23h agoBeyer
Wednesday, Oct 14
Grupo de deputados solicita interrupção da expansão de IA no tráfego aéreo de Washington
The article notes that US lawmakers, including Don Beyer (VA-08), joined colleagues to push back against expanding AI use in air traffic control.

port.pravda.ruYesterdayBeyer
As Trump's proposed arch looms over D.C., protesters pin their hopes on the midterms
The article covers Virginia Representative Don Beyer (D-VA-08) speaking at a protest-related event, criticizing Trump’s proposed arch project in D.C. and the broader political climate ahead of the midterms.

JingletreeYesterdayBeyer

Don Beyer, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DDon Beyer	96.4%		95.8%	97.1%	1.3 pts	–
RTony Sabio	2.0%		2.2%	1.3%	0.9 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/va-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-va-08">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Don Beyer

Democratic U.S. Representative for Virginia's 8th congressional district (since 2015)

Don Beyer, a Democrat who has represented Virginia's 8th congressional district since 2015 and was earlier lieutenant governor of Virginia and ambassador to Switzerland, faces Republican Tony Sabio, a former CIA and Secret Service officer, in 2026.

Born 1950 · Trieste, Free Territory of Trieste

Full candidate profile →

Tony Sabio

Republican

Tony Sabio, a Republican and former CIA and Secret Service officer, is his party's nominee for Virginia's 8th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Don Beyer.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi268 contracts

Virginia's 8th District margin of victory

Beyer, 14+ pts		95.5% implied
Beyer, 17+ pts		95.5% implied
Beyer, 20+ pts		95.5% implied
Beyer, 23+ pts		95.5% implied
Beyer, 26+ pts		95.4% implied
Beyer, 29+ pts		95.3% implied
Beyer, 32+ pts		95.0% implied
Beyer, 35+ pts		97.2%
Beyer, 38+ pts		96.7%
Beyer, 41+ pts		95.3%
Beyer, 44+ pts		94.3%
Beyer, 47+ pts		89.5%
Beyer, 50+ pts		82.5%
Beyer, 53+ pts		73.5%
Beyer, 56+ pts		61.5%
Beyer, 59+ pts		48.5%
Beyer, 62+ pts		34.5%
Beyer, 65+ pts		21.5%
Beyer, 68+ pts		11.6%
Beyer, 71+ pts		5.3%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$41.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Don Beyer: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 96.9% · $961 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi14.0K contracts traded