US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-01 House.
The article reports that Heath Flora was elected on Oct 16, 2026, to lead the California Assembly Republicans as the next Assembly Minority Leader, succeeding James Gallagher.
GallagherRep. James Gallagher (R-CA) is urging the U.S. Trade Representative to address policies harming U.S.
GallagherFarmers who decide to run will also have the job of educating their fellow members of Congress, Newhouse said.
California wine producers, led by James Gallagher, are pressing for greater access to India as declining U.S. demand hits the industry.
GallagherThe article reports that U.S. Representative James Gallagher (CA-01) criticizes California officials for not removing illegal immigrants from voter rolls and endorses Proposition 39 as a key measure to restore election…
GallagherNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMike McGuire | 94.7% | 95.0% | 94.0% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| RJames Gallagher | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.4 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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James Gallagher, a Republican who has represented California's 1st congressional district since 2026 and was minority leader of the California State Assembly from 2022 to 2025, faces Democrat Mike McGuire in the 2026 election.
Mike McGuire, a Democratic California state senator who served as president pro tempore of the State Senate from 2024 to 2025, faces Republican incumbent James Gallagher for California's 1st congressional district in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 1st District margin of victory
| McGuire, 5+ pts | 91.7% | |
| McGuire, 8+ pts | 84.0% | |
| McGuire, 11+ pts | 72.5% | |
| McGuire, 14+ pts | 58.5% | |
| McGuire, 17+ pts | 44.0% | |
| McGuire, 20+ pts | – | |
| McGuire, 23+ pts | 18.0% | |
| McGuire, 26+ pts | 9.1% | |
| McGuire, 29+ pts | 5.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Mike McGuire: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 95.4% · $8.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Mike McGuire: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 94.1% · $3.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Mike McGuire
If the House member sworn in for CA-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
