nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CA-08 House 2026

96.6% DJohn Garamendi leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.2%
Kalshi
96.8%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-08 House.

  1. ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections

    Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A

    armenianweekly.comMiller-MeeksMcBathCorreaMcClainSánchezLeeFriedmanMfumeRivetMullinCalvertMorrisonCammackChuHarderOlszewskiRutherfordMoolenaarGaramendiCastroPatronisPanettaMcGovernBairdShreveHurdObernolte

John Garamendi, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJohn Garamendi 96.6% 96.2% 96.8% 0.5 pts –
RRudy Recile 3.4% 3.5% 2.5% 1.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-08/embed.html" title="CA-08 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-08">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-08"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-08/card-landscape.png" alt="CA-08 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

John Garamendi

John Garamendi

Democratic U.S. Representative from California (since 2009)

John Garamendi, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House since 2009 and was previously lieutenant governor of California, faces Republican Rudy Recile in the 2026 race for California's 8th congressional district.

Born 1945 · Camp Blanding, Florida

Rudy Recile

Republican

Rudy Recile, a Republican businessman who was runner-up for the seat in 2022 and 2024, faces Democratic incumbent John Garamendi in the 2026 election for California's 8th congressional district.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi200 contracts

California's 8th District margin of victory

Garamendi, 33+ pts
94.6%
Garamendi, 36+ pts
91.5%
Garamendi, 39+ pts
84.5%
Garamendi, 42+ pts
–
Garamendi, 45+ pts
61.5%
Garamendi, 48+ pts
–
Garamendi, 51+ pts
–
Garamendi, 54+ pts
–
Garamendi, 57+ pts
13.2%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$57.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

John Garamendi: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 97.4% · $239 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

John Garamendi: Counted · bid 94.9% / ask 98.6% · $568 within 5 pts

Contract shown: John Garamendi

If the House member sworn in for CA-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in California

  1. California GovernorD96%
  2. CA-01 HouseD95%
  3. CA-02 HouseD98%
  4. CA-03 HouseD96%
  5. CA-04 HouseD96%
  6. CA-05 HouseR93%
  7. CA-06 HouseD94%
  8. CA-07 HouseD97%