nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CA-09 House 2026

97.1% DJosh Harder leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.3%
Kalshi
97.0%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-09 House.

  1. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian – Armenian Directory & News

    The article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.

    armenianclub.comDeanMcBathSmuckerUnderwoodGoodenSchrierSelfCammackHarderMorelleJacksonOlszewskiRutherfordJoyce
  2. The country's budding technology sector calls for a cash boost.

    The article, written by John McBride (October 16, 2026), analyzes how the country’s emerging technology sector urgently needs more funding and government cash support.

    goldenreelscentral.comMcBride
  3. Subnautica's Next Chapter Gets a May Early Access Release Throughout Continuing Courtroom Disputes.

    Headline: Subnautica's Next Chapter Gets a May Early Access Release Amid Ongoing Courtroom Disputes

    goldenreelscentral.comMcBride
  4. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  5. Upgraded 99/120 Junction Now Open! What Drivers Need to Know

    Josh Harder emphasized the upgraded 99/120 junction as a top infrastructure priority for his CA-09 district.

    onda8.orgHarder
More coverage 1
  1. Desperate to Find Nourishment, Drought-Stricken Residents of Kenya Rely on the Doum Palm Plant

    The article, written by John McBride on October 16, 2026, explores how drought-stricken Kenyan communities are turning to the doum palm plant as a critical source of nourishment.

    goldenreelscentral.comMcBride

Josh Harder, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJosh Harder 97.1% 97.3% 97.0% 0.3 pts –
RJohn McBride 2.2% 2.7% 1.7% 1.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

John McBride

Republican

John McBride, a Republican athletic coach who was a candidate for the seat in 2024, faces Democratic incumbent Josh Harder in the 2026 election for California's 9th congressional district.

Josh Harder

Josh Harder

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 9th congressional district (since 2023)

Josh Harder, a Democrat who has represented California in the U.S. House since 2019 and the 9th district since 2023, faces Republican John McBride in the 2026 race for California's 9th congressional district.

Born 1986 · Turlock, California

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi0 contracts

California's 9th District margin of victory

Harder, 10+ pts
94.8%
Harder, 13+ pts
91.5%
Harder, 16+ pts
83.0%
Harder, 19+ pts
71.0%
Harder, 22+ pts
57.0%
Harder, 25+ pts
–
Harder, 28+ pts
27.0%
Harder, 31+ pts
16.0%
Harder, 34+ pts
7.3%
Harder, 37+ pts
4.5%
Harder, 40+ pts
3.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$24.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Josh Harder: Counted · bid 97.0% / ask 97.6% · $506 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi6.1K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Josh Harder: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 97.4% · $897 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Josh Harder

If the House member sworn in for CA-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in California

  1. California GovernorD96%
  2. CA-01 HouseD95%
  3. CA-02 HouseD98%
  4. CA-03 HouseD96%
  5. CA-04 HouseD96%
  6. CA-05 HouseR93%
  7. CA-06 HouseD94%
  8. CA-07 HouseD97%