US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-15 House.
The article discusses how California’s redrawn congressional districts, approved via Proposition 50 in November 2025, could yield up to four additional House seats for Democrats and make several California races among…
Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A
START YOUR ENGINES: The nationwide angst over soaring diesel prices has made its way into one of California’s most hotly contested House races.
Tran, a Democrat and child of Vietnamese refugees, is defending his Orange County seat in a newly redrawn, moderately Democratic district (-about five points more favorable after Prop. 50).
The article discusses a California House race in the newly drawn 6th Congressional District for the Nov. 3 election, featuring Democrat Richard Pan vs. Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA).
The Guardian examines California’s 22nd congressional district (Tulare County, Bakersfield area) as a pivotal, working-class, Latino-majority seat that has become a national political battleground in the 2026 midterms.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DKevin Mullin | 97.3% | 97.0% | 97.8% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| RCharles Hoelter | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.5 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Charles Hoelter, a Republican and retired training supervisor, faces Democratic incumbent Kevin Mullin in the 2026 election for California's 15th congressional district after finishing second in the top-two primary.
Kevin Mullin, a Democrat who has represented California's 15th congressional district in the U.S. House since 2023, faces Republican Charles Hoelter, a retired training supervisor, in his 2026 reelection race.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 15th District margin of victory
| Mullin, 45+ pts | 96.6% | |
| Mullin, 48+ pts | 95.7% | |
| Mullin, 51+ pts | 93.8% | |
| Mullin, 54+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Mullin, 57+ pts | 70.0% | |
| Mullin, 60+ pts | – | |
| Mullin, 63+ pts | – | |
| Mullin, 66+ pts | 13.0% | |
| Mullin, 69+ pts | 4.9% |
Prices which party wins.
Kevin Mullin: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 97.7% · $1.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Kevin Mullin: Counted · bid 97.1% / ask 98.5% · $614 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Kevin Mullin
If the House member sworn in for CA-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
