House · 3 November 2026

CA-16 House 2026

97.6% DSam Liccardo leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.4%
Kalshi: 98.0%
Spread: 0.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.6
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Sam Liccardo, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DSam Liccardo	97.6%		97.4%	98.0%	0.7 pts	–
RPeter Soulé	1.7%		1.9%	1.5%	0.4 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Peter Soulé

Republican

Peter Soulé, a Republican investor, faces Democratic incumbent Sam Liccardo in the 2026 election for California's 16th congressional district after taking second place in the top-two primary.

Full candidate profile →

Sam Liccardo

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 16th congressional district (since 2025)

Sam Liccardo, a Democrat who served as mayor of San Jose from 2015 to 2023 and has represented California's 16th congressional district since 2025, faces Republican investor Peter Soulé in 2026.

Born 1970 · Saratoga, California

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi0 contracts

California's 16th District margin of victory

Liccardo, 45+ pts		96.6%
Liccardo, 48+ pts		95.7%
Liccardo, 51+ pts		93.9%
Liccardo, 54+ pts		85.8%
Liccardo, 57+ pts		72.0%
Liccardo, 60+ pts		53.0%
Liccardo, 63+ pts		33.0%
Liccardo, 66+ pts		16.0%
Liccardo, 69+ pts		5.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$281 traded

CA-16 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		–
Democrat 0-25%		3.9%
Democrat 25-35%		–
Democrat 35-40%		–
Democrat 40-45%		–
Democrat 45-50%		–
Democrat 50-55%		–
Democrat 55-60%		–
Democrat 60-65%		–
Democrat 65%+		–

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$107.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Sam Liccardo: Counted · bid 97.3% / ask 97.4% · $875 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi10.1K contracts traded