US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-26 House.
The press release discusses California’s new Workforce Pell Grant application portal for institutions to assess eligibility of career training programs, aligning funded programs with regional labor market needs.
IrwinThe article is about the race for California Assembly District 42 in the Nov. 3 General Election.
Jacqui Irwin (CA-26) appeared in a candidate forum for the 26th Congressional District in Moorpark on Sept. 24, 2026.
IrwinThe article covers California’s Assembly District 42 race, featuring Republican Ted Nordblum’s bid to succeed Democrat Jacqui Irwin, who is term-limited and running for the 26th Congressional District (CA-26) in the…
IrwinThe article profiles candidates for California’s 26th Congressional District ( Ventura County’s largest district), where Democrat Jacqui Irwin (state assembly veteran) and Republican Sam Gallucci (pastor and former tech…
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJacqui Irwin | 96.6% | 96.0% | 98.4% | 2.4 pts | – | |
| RSam Gallucci | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.7 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Jacqui Irwin, a Democratic member of the California State Assembly since 2014 and former mayor of Thousand Oaks, faces Republican pastor Sam Gallucci for California's open 26th congressional district seat in 2026.
Sam Gallucci, a Republican and pastor, faces Democratic state assemblymember Jacqui Irwin in the 2026 general election for California's 26th congressional district after finishing second in a nine-candidate top-two primary.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 26th District margin of victory
| Irwin, 12+ pts | 86.9% | |
| Irwin, 15+ pts | 77.0% | |
| Irwin, 18+ pts | 64.0% | |
| Irwin, 21+ pts | – | |
| Irwin, 24+ pts | – | |
| Irwin, 27+ pts | 22.0% | |
| Irwin, 30+ pts | 12.1% | |
| Irwin, 33+ pts | 5.5% | |
| Irwin, 36+ pts | 4.1% |
Prices which party wins.
Jacqui Irwin: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 96.8% · $1.4K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jacqui Irwin: Counted · bid 97.1% / ask 99.7% · $491 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jacqui Irwin
If the House member sworn in for CA-26 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
