US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-32 House.
Larry Thompson reports that Dave’s Hot Chicken plans a new location in Tyler, Texas, on S. Broadway Avenue. Construction is slated to begin in November 2026, with a targeted opening date of April 16, 2027.
ThompsonNote: The provided content does not include details about CA-32 House or any direct connection to a representative or district.
ThompsonRep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
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BentzKurdianBrad Sherman and several Democratic lawmakers urged the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to overturn a lower court ruling that allowed the Sable Offshore pipeline restart in California.
ShermanBrad Sherman (CA-32) appears in a news item about Democratic lawmakers challenging the Trump administration’s move to restart the Sable Offshore oil pipeline in California.
ShermanLarry Thompson reports that Ronnie O’Sullivan created cue sports history with a record-breaking 153 break.
ThompsonThe page reports that a Martinsburg man was arrested by U.S. Marshals for a stabbing that occurred in November.
ThompsonBuild cross-party partnerships on priorities like affordability, wildfire recovery and prevention, homelessness, public safety, and restoring film/TV jobs to California.
ThompsonTopic: Emanuel Cleaver (Missouri) and his stance within the House, particularly in relation to leadership dynamics and support for long-tenured members.
Focus: Ongoing counting of absentee, mobile teams, and diplomatic-consular posts (DKP) in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBrad Sherman | 96.8% | 96.4% | 97.5% | 1.1 pts | – | |
| RLarry Thompson | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Brad Sherman, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House since 1997 and represents California's 32nd congressional district, faces Republican talent manager Larry Thompson for re-election to the 32nd district seat in 2026.
Larry Thompson, a Republican film producer and talent manager who was the runner-up in California's 32nd congressional district in 2024, faces Democratic incumbent Brad Sherman for the 32nd district seat again in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 32nd District margin of victory
| Sherman, 25+ pts | 88.9% | |
| Sherman, 28+ pts | 80.0% | |
| Sherman, 31+ pts | 67.0% | |
| Sherman, 34+ pts | 52.0% | |
| Sherman, 37+ pts | 36.0% | |
| Sherman, 40+ pts | – | |
| Sherman, 43+ pts | 12.0% | |
| Sherman, 46+ pts | 5.5% | |
| Sherman, 49+ pts | 3.9% |
Prices which party wins.
Brad Sherman: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 97.5% · $941 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Brad Sherman: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 98.6% · $628 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Brad Sherman
If the House member sworn in for CA-32 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
