nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CA-46 House 2026

96.7% DLou Correa leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.5%
Kalshi
97.0%
Spread
1.6 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.3
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-46 House.

  1. 2026 Election: 4-way race in La Habra for two council seats

    Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... [...] ## More in Election

    Orange County RegisterPan
  2. California’s 47th Congressional District candidates align on tech issues, differ on offshore drilling

    15 [...] Min said before any long-term fixes can be put in place, Congress needs to first reverse the cuts to Medicare and Medicaid and ensure that Affordable Care Act subsidies don’t expire.

    Orange County RegisterPan
  3. California's 27th district Race 2026: Pro-Israel PAC Money for George Whitesides (D) and Jason Gibbs (R): AIPAC Tracker
    whofundsmyrep.comBrignanoAngelPan
  4. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  5. Correa and Smith introduce the bipartisan Bright Beginnings Act to expand childcare for children with developmental disabilities

    Topic: Bipartisan Bright Beginnings Act introduced by U.S. Representatives Lou Correa (D-CA, CA-46) and Chris Smith (R-NJ).

    fullertonobserver.comCorreaSmith
More coverage 4
  1. CORREA, SMITH INTRODUCE BIPARTISAN BRIGHT BEGINNINGS ACT TO EXPAND CHILDCARE FOR CHILDREN WITH DEVELOPMENTAL DISABILITIES

    The Bright Beginnings Act is a bipartisan bill introduced by Rep. Lou Correa (D-CA) and Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) to expand childcare for children with developmental disabilities.

    correa.house.govOfficialCorreaSmith
  2. Press Release: Lou Correa, Chris Smith Introduce Bill to Expand Child Care for Children With Developmental Disabilities

    Bill: The Bright Beginnings Act, introduced by Rep. Lou Correa (D-CA) and Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ-04).

    Quiver QuantitativeSmithCorrea
  3. 2026 Election: Katrina Foley and Diane Dixon go head to head in District 5 OC Board of Supervisors race

    Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux (left) and Democratic incumbent Dave Min (right) are vying for California’s 47th Congressional District in the November election (Courtesy photos) [...] The five-member Board of Supervisors…

    Orange County RegisterPan
  4. 2026 Election: Tim Shaw and Connor Traut face off for open District 4 OC Board of Supervisor seat

    Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux (left) and Democratic incumbent Dave Min (right) are vying for California’s 47th Congressional District in the November election (Courtesy photos) [...] Skip to content

    Orange County RegisterPan

Lou Correa, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DLou Correa 96.7% 95.5% 97.0% 1.5 pts –
RDavid Pan 2.9% 3.7% 2.1% 1.6 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

David Pan

Republican

David Pan, a Republican professor of German at the University of California, Irvine, who was his party's 2024 candidate in California's 46th congressional district, faces Democratic incumbent Lou Correa there in 2026.

Lou Correa

Lou Correa

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 46th congressional district (since 2017)

Lou Correa, a Democrat who has represented California's 46th congressional district in the U.S. House since 2017, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican David Pan, a college professor.

Born 1958 · East Los Angeles, California

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi601 contracts

California's 46th District margin of victory

Correa, 22+ pts
91.5%
Correa, 25+ pts
83.0%
Correa, 28+ pts
72.0%
Correa, 31+ pts
57.0%
Correa, 34+ pts
–
Correa, 37+ pts
27.0%
Correa, 40+ pts
15.5%
Correa, 43+ pts
7.0%
Correa, 46+ pts
4.3%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$51.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Lou Correa: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 96.9% · $4.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.4K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Lou Correa: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 97.9% · $27.5K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Lou Correa

If the House member sworn in for CA-46 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in California

  1. California GovernorD96%
  2. CA-01 HouseD95%
  3. CA-02 HouseD98%
  4. CA-03 HouseD96%
  5. CA-04 HouseD96%
  6. CA-05 HouseR93%
  7. CA-06 HouseD94%
  8. CA-07 HouseD97%