US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for FL-04 House.
Lawmakers emphasized that recruiting numbers show Florida has the capacity to expand.
Patronis
Rutherford
BeanThe provided article discusses Aaron Bean, the Republican representative from Florida (FL-04), in the context of a December 5 congressional hearing where GOP members pressured university presidents (Harvard, MIT, UPenn)…
BeanRep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
McBath
Beatty
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Morelle
Joyce
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Solis
Conaway
Reschenthaler
Bilirakis
Thompson
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Latimer
Palmer
Amo
Lucas
Burlison
Valadao
Rouzer
Joyce
Strong
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Jack
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McDowellBean
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BentzKurdianThe article profiles Todd Schaefer, a retired Navy veteran and realtor, who is running for U.S. House of Representatives in Florida’s 4th Congressional District in the November 3 general election.
U.S. lawmakers from Florida’s 4th district (Rep. Aaron Bean, along with Reps. Gus Bilirakis and C. Scott Franklin) have pressed federal agencies to pause or modify a Customs rule on Canadian drug imports.
BeanThe article explains voting information for the upcoming election, including key candidates for Florida’s U.S. House District 4 race.
BeanNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAaron Bean | 86.0% | 86.0% | 86.0% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| DLaShonda Holloway | 13.6% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 0.5 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Aaron Bean, a Republican who has represented Florida's 4th congressional district since 2023 after serving in the Florida Senate from 2012 to 2022, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat LaShonda Holloway.
LaShonda Holloway, a Democrat and former director in the District of Columbia Office of Documents and Administrative Issuances, is her party's nominee for Florida's 4th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Aaron Bean.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Florida's 4th District margin of victory
| Bean, 3+ pts | 77.0% | |
| Bean, 6+ pts | 64.0% | |
| Bean, 9+ pts | 45.5% | |
| Bean, 12+ pts | 28.5% | |
| Bean, 15+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Bean, 18+ pts | 9.7% | |
| Bean, 21+ pts | 4.9% |
FL-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 21%+ | – | |
| Republican 18-21% | 1.0% | |
| Republican 15-18% | 8.0% | |
| Republican 12-15% | 21.5% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 20.0% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 23.5% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 19.5% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 5.0% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | – | |
| Democrat 3%+ | 1.8% |
Prices which party wins.
Aaron Bean: Counted · bid 85.0% / ask 87.0% · $5.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Aaron Bean: Counted · bid 85.0% / ask 87.0% · $26.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Aaron Bean
If the House member sworn in for FL-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
