House · 3 November 2026

FL-06 House 2026

96.6% RRandy Fine leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 96.0%
Kalshi: 97.8%
Spread: 1.8 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.5
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for FL-06 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

Ex-US Sen. Mel Martinez, a Republican, endorses Democrat Bale Dalton in House District 7 race

Traffic closed after car crashes into Orange County daycare, hurting 3 children

WKMGYesterdayDalton Overman Yonce Gibson Green

Yesterday
Florida Republican Salazarfaces faces growing divide in her Latino-majority district : NPR
The article discusses incumbent Republican Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar and the challenges she faces in her Miami-area, Latino-majority district (Florida's 27th/FL-27, with coverage focused on the Miami area).

npr.org17h agoYonce
Phillip Ray Carter wants to 'put people ahead of politics' in FL House
The article is not about Eric Yonce. It focuses on Democrat Phillip Ray Carter, who is running for Florida House District 76, not District 06, and not on Eric Yonce.

Naples Daily News17h agoYonce
Wednesday, Oct 14
Housing affordability takes center stage in Florida’s 20th Congressional District race
The article discusses housing affordability becoming a primary issue in Florida’s 20th Congressional District race.

WPLGYesterdayOverman Pericola Yonce Gibson Andersen Rogers Green
Largest Federal Employee Union Endorses 6 Florida Candidates Running for Election
The page reports that the largest federal employee union (AFGE) endorsed six Florida candidates for the 2024 elections.

afge.orgYesterdayYonce Rogers

Randy Fine, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RRandy Fine	96.6%		96.0%	97.8%	1.8 pts	–
DEric Yonce	1.6%		1.3%	2.0%	0.7 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/fl-06/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-fl-06">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Eric Yonce

Democratic

Eric Yonce, a Democrat who works as a realtor, is his party's nominee for Florida's 6th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Randy Fine in the November 3 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Randy Fine

Republican U.S. Representative for Florida's 6th congressional district (since 2025)

Randy Fine, a Republican who has represented Florida's 6th congressional district since winning a 2025 special election, seeks a full term in 2026 against Democrat Eric Yonce, a realtor.

Born 1974 · Tucson, Arizona

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi143 contracts

Florida's 6th District margin of victory

Fine, 9+ pts		86.9%
Fine, 12+ pts		76.5%
Fine, 15+ pts		65.0%
Fine, 18+ pts		49.5%
Fine, 21+ pts		33.5%
Fine, 24+ pts		22.5%
Fine, 27+ pts		11.9%
Fine, 30+ pts		5.6%
Fine, 33+ pts		3.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$11.6K traded

FL-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		1.0%
Republican 0-5%		3.8%
Republican 5-10%		2.6%
Republican 10-15%		20.9%
Republican 15-20%		21.3%
Republican 20-25%		–
Republican 25-30%		4.8%
Republican 30-35%		10.0%
Republican 35%+		5.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$37.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Randy Fine: Counted · bid 94.9% / ask 97.0% · $715 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi5.1K contracts traded