House · 3 November 2026

FL-10 House 2026

97.5% DMaxwell Frost leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 96.8%
Kalshi: 97.8%
Spread: 0.9 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.4
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Maxwell Frost, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DMaxwell Frost	97.5%		96.8%	97.8%	0.9 pts	–
RRepublican Party	2.6%		2.4%	2.7%	0.3 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Maxwell Frost

Democratic U.S. Representative for Florida's 10th congressional district (since 2023)

Maxwell Frost, a Democrat who has represented Florida's 10th congressional district since 2023, is unopposed for re-election in 2026 after every other candidate failed to qualify or withdrew, cancelling the primary and general elections.

Born 1997 · Orlando, Florida

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi8.7K contracts

Florida's 10th District margin of victory

Frost, 21+ pts		97.4%
Frost, 24+ pts		97.4%
Frost, 27+ pts		97.4%
Frost, 30+ pts		97.2%
Frost, 33+ pts		97.3%
Frost, 36+ pts		97.3%
Frost, 39+ pts		97.3%
Frost, 42+ pts		97.3%
Frost, 45+ pts		97.3%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$23.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Maxwell Frost: Counted · bid 95.5% / ask 98.2% · $2.6K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi37.0K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Maxwell Frost: Counted · bid 95.8% / ask 99.7% · $5.7K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Maxwell Frost

If the House member sworn in for FL-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi