House · 3 November 2026

FL-15 House 2026

94.2% RLaurel Lee leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 96.1%
Kalshi: 93.8%
Spread: 2.4 pts
24h: –
7 days: +3.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for FL-15 House.

1 story this week

Top story

ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections

Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A

armenianweekly.com3h ago

Lee

Chu

Laurel Lee, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RLaurel Lee	94.2%		96.1%	93.8%	2.3 pts	–
DRobert People	5.4%		3.8%	6.2%	2.4 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Laurel Lee

Republican U.S. Representative for Florida's 15th congressional district (since 2023)

Laurel Lee, a Republican former Florida secretary of state who has represented Florida's 15th congressional district in the U.S. House since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Robert People, a retired U.S. Army veteran.

Born 1974 · Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio

Full candidate profile →

Robert People

Democratic

Robert People, a retired U.S. Army veteran and writer, is the Democratic nominee for Florida's 15th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Laurel Lee in the November 3 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.7K contracts

Florida's 15th District margin of victory

Lee, 1+ pts		92.0%
Lee, 4+ pts		84.5%
Lee, 7+ pts		74.5%
Lee, 10+ pts		63.0%
Lee, 13+ pts		45.5%
Lee, 16+ pts		31.5%
Lee, 19+ pts		20.0%
Lee, 22+ pts		9.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi1.0K contracts

Florida's 15th District margin of victory

People, 2+ pts		4.2%
People, 5+ pts		4.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.3K traded

FL-15 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		2.9%
Republican 0-5%		2.5%
Republican 5-10%		23.0%
Republican 10-15%		33.0%
Republican 15-20%		26.5%
Republican 20-25%		16.0%
Republican 25-30%		1.5%
Republican 30%+		0.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$35.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Laurel Lee: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 97.6% · $315 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi14.3K contracts traded