House · 3 November 2026

FL-26 House 2026

88.6% RMario Díaz-Balart leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 88.5%
Kalshi: 89.1%
Spread: 0.6 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Mario Díaz-Balart, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RMario Díaz-Balart	88.6%		88.5%	89.1%	0.6 pts	–
DNicole Locklin	10.5%		10.5%	10.6%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/fl-26/embed.html" title="FL-26 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/fl-26/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-fl-26">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/fl-26/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-fl-26"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/fl-26/card-landscape.png" alt="FL-26 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Mario Díaz-Balart

Republican U.S. Representative for Florida's 26th congressional district (since 2003)

Mario Díaz-Balart, a Republican who has served in the U.S. House since 2003 and represents Florida's 26th congressional district, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Nicole Locklin, a lawyer.

Born 1961 · Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Full candidate profile →

Nicole Locklin

Democratic

Nicole Locklin, a lawyer, is the Democratic nominee for Florida's 26th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican U.S. Representative Mario Díaz-Balart, who was re-elected with 70.9% of the vote in 2024.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi5.0K contracts

Florida's 26th District margin of victory

Balart, 1+ pts		86.3%
Balart, 4+ pts		75.5%
Balart, 7+ pts		61.5%
Balart, 10+ pts		45.5%
Balart, 13+ pts		35.0%
Balart, 16+ pts		21.5%
Balart, 19+ pts		8.9%
Balart, 22+ pts		4.3%
Balart, 25+ pts		5.9% implied
Balart, 28+ pts		4.8% implied
Balart, 31+ pts		4.6% implied
Balart, 34+ pts		4.5% implied
Balart, 37+ pts		4.5% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$83.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mario Díaz-Balart: Counted · bid 88.0% / ask 89.0% · $8.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi14.1K contracts traded