US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for IL-09 House.
The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.
The Evanston mayoral race to replace outgoing Mayor Daniel Biss has attracted notable fundraising, with candidates reporting tens of thousands of dollars raised over the prior three months.
BissDaniel Biss is Evanston’s mayor who is running to succeed Rep. Jan Schakowsky in Illinois’s 9th Congressional District. If elected on Nov. 3, he would become the U.S.
Biss, Evanston Mayor, is described as a progressive Democrat aligned with the district’s liberal tradition.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDaniel Biss | 97.4% | 97.0% | 98.0% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| RJohn Elleson | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.8 pts | – |
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Daniel Biss, a Democrat who has served as mayor of Evanston since 2021, is his party's nominee for Illinois's open 9th congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican John Elleson, a pastor.
John Elleson, a Republican pastor who was the party's 2018 nominee for the district, faces Democrat Daniel Biss, the mayor of Evanston, for Illinois's open 9th congressional district seat in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Illinois's 9th District margin of victory
| Biss, 31+ pts | 95.2% | |
| Biss, 34+ pts | 87.1% | |
| Biss, 37+ pts | 76.5% | |
| Biss, 40+ pts | 67.5% | |
| Biss, 43+ pts | 55.5% | |
| Biss, 46+ pts | 44.5% | |
| Biss, 49+ pts | 33.5% | |
| Biss, 52+ pts | 22.5% | |
| Biss, 55+ pts | 10.8% |
IL-09 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 1.5% | |
| Democrat 0-20% | 3.7% | |
| Democrat 20-30% | 4.1% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 5.6% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 8.7% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 23.6% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 25.1% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 22.0% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 16.0% | |
| Democrat 60%+ | 4.2% |
Prices which party wins.
Daniel Biss: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 98.8% · $1.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Daniel Biss: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 99.7% · $704 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Daniel Biss
If the House member sworn in for IL-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
