US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for IL-14 House.
The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.
The article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
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BentzKurdianTopic: A coalition of prominent House Democrats led by Sen. Ed Markey and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, including Rep.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLauren Underwood | 96.1% | 96.0% | 96.8% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| RJames Marter | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 0.2 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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James Marter, a Republican Oswego Public Library Board member and perennial candidate, is the Republican nominee for Illinois's 14th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Lauren Underwood.
Lauren Underwood, a Democrat and registered nurse who has represented Illinois's 14th congressional district since 2019, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican James Marter, an Oswego Public Library Board member.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Illinois's 14th District margin of victory
| Underwood, 5+ pts | 92.0% | |
| Underwood, 8+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Underwood, 11+ pts | 75.0% | |
| Underwood, 14+ pts | 63.0% | |
| Underwood, 17+ pts | 55.0% | |
| Underwood, 20+ pts | 44.0% | |
| Underwood, 23+ pts | 33.0% | |
| Underwood, 26+ pts | 22.0% | |
| Underwood, 29+ pts | 11.8% |
IL-14 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.2% implied | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 3.8% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 11.7% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 15.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 22.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 32.0% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 8.4% | |
| Democrat 35%+ | 9.3% |
Prices which party wins.
Lauren Underwood: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 97.2% · $5.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Lauren Underwood: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 98.9% · $890 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Lauren Underwood
If the House member sworn in for IL-14 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
