nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MI-09 House 2026

95.7% RLisa McClain leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
95.9%
Kalshi
95.6%
Spread
1.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
−1.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MI-09 House.

  1. United States Vice President JD Vance in Monroe, Mi Oct. 15

    Vice President JD Vance spoke in Monroe Thursday, Oct. 15 at a midterm election rally at LevelUp Training.

    Monroe NewsMcClain
  2. Checkout will change for all shoppers once Trump signs controversial bill into law

    AMERICAN life will change at the checkout once President Trump signs a talked-about bill into law.

    The US SunMcClain

Lisa McClain, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RLisa McClain 95.7% 95.9% 95.6% 0.3 pts –
DRay Pooley 3.9% 4.1% 2.6% 1.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/mi-09/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-mi-09">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Lisa McClain

Lisa McClain

Republican U.S. Representative for Michigan's 9th congressional district (since 2021)

Lisa McClain, a Republican who has represented Michigan's 9th congressional district since 2021 and chairs the House Republican Conference, is running for re-election in 2026 against Democrat Ray Pooley.

Born 1966 · Stockbridge, Michigan

Ray Pooley

Democratic

Ray Pooley, a Democrat who works as a CNC machinist and programmer, is his party's 2026 nominee in Michigan's 9th congressional district against Republican incumbent Lisa McClain, chair of the House Republican Conference.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi862 contracts

Michigan's 9th District margin of victory

McClain, 19+ pts
87.3%
McClain, 22+ pts
76.5%
McClain, 25+ pts
63.5%
McClain, 28+ pts
47.5%
McClain, 31+ pts
31.5%
McClain, 34+ pts
18.5%
McClain, 37+ pts
8.6%
McClain, 40+ pts
4.0%
McClain, 43+ pts
10.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$14.3K traded

MI-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
3.8%
Republican 0-5%
0.3%
Republican 5-15%
4.5%
Republican 15-20%
–
Republican 20-25%
25.5%
Republican 25-30%
–
Republican 30-35%
22.5%
Republican 35-40%
9.0%
Republican 40-45%
4.5%
Republican 45%+
4.7%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$38.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Lisa McClain: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 96.6% · $593 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi6.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Lisa McClain: Counted · bid 94.4% / ask 96.8% · $983 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Lisa McClain

If the House member sworn in for MI-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Michigan

  1. Michigan SenateD69%
  2. Michigan GovernorD94%
  3. MI-01 HouseR89%
  4. MI-02 HouseR97%
  5. MI-03 HouseD95%
  6. MI-04 HouseR51%
  7. MI-05 HouseR95%
  8. MI-06 HouseD98%