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The provided content is not specifically about Jeremy Moss or Michigan's 11th Congressional District (MI-11).
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Moss
MossUpdated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
MI-11 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 95.3%
- Kalshi
- 96.4%
- Spread
- 1.1 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.8
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for MI-11 House.
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He could be Michigan’s first out LGBTQ+ member of Congress. He wants Democrats to fight harder
"First and foremost, I think voters want fighters and not folders," he said in an interview.
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Michigan is set to elect its first out LGBTQ+ congressman
Twenty-two years later, the Democratic state senator is seeking to become Michigan’s first out LGBTQ+ member of Congress.
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Il pourrait être le premier membre LGBTQ+ du Congrès du Michigan. Il veut que les démocrates se battent plus fort
Jeremy Moss, a Michigan state senator and LGBTQ+ advocate, is running for Michigan’s 11th Congressional District (Oakland County) in the 2024 election, seeking to become the first LGBTQ+ member of Michigan’s U.S. House.
mygayprides.comMoss -
Victory Institute to honor Nancy Pelosi at D.C. conference
The Los Angeles Blade profiles Chris Gallant, a openly gay Democrat running for New York’s 1st Congressional District (NY-01), which covers Nassau and Suffolk Counties.
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Jeremy Moss runs for Congress with a sharper message on LGBTQ+ rights and Democratic power
Advocates for stronger Democratic positions on health care, gun safety, transgender rights, and checks on President Donald Trump.
thepinktimes.comMoss
No story this week names this candidate.
Jeremy Moss, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJeremy Moss | 95.4% | 95.3% | 96.4% | 1.1 pts | – | |
| REthan Baker | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.2 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Ethan Baker
Republican Mayor of Troy (since 2019)
Ethan Baker, a Republican who has served as mayor of Troy since 2019, is his party's nominee for the open seat in Michigan's 11th congressional district in 2026 against Democrat Jeremy Moss.
Jeremy Moss
Democratic Member of the Michigan Senate (since 2019)
Jeremy Moss, a Democrat who serves as president pro tempore of the Michigan Senate, is his party's nominee for the open seat in Michigan's 11th congressional district in 2026 against Republican Ethan Baker.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi1.7K contracts
Michigan's 11th District margin of victory
| Moss, 11+ pts | 94.1% | |
| Moss, 14+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Moss, 17+ pts | 73.5% | |
| Moss, 20+ pts | 63.5% | |
| Moss, 23+ pts | 53.0% | |
| Moss, 26+ pts | 42.5% | |
| Moss, 29+ pts | 34.5% | |
| Moss, 32+ pts | 21.0% | |
| Moss, 35+ pts | 9.8% |
Polymarket$24.4K traded
MI-11 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 1.1% | |
| Democrat 0-10% | 2.1% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 3.6% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 16.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 24.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 23.5% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 21.5% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 1.6% | |
| Democrat 40%+ | 1.9% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$82.0K traded
Prices which party wins.
Jeremy Moss: Counted · bid 93.9% / ask 96.8% · $25.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi2.4K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Jeremy Moss: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 97.9% · $727 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jeremy Moss
If the House member sworn in for MI-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Michigan
- Michigan SenateD69%
- Michigan GovernorD94%
- MI-01 HouseR89%
- MI-02 HouseR97%
- MI-03 HouseD95%
- MI-04 HouseR51%
- MI-05 HouseR95%
- MI-06 HouseD98%