nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MI-13 House 2026

97.5% DDonavan McKinney leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
98.0%
Kalshi
97.2%
Spread
0.9 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.7
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MI-13 House.

  1. MEA Endorses Brink, McKinney, Greimel for U.S. House

    The article reports that the Michigan Education Association (MEA) endorsed candidates for the U.S. House.

    pro.stateaffairs.comSmileyMcKinney
  2. 10 races to watch: Democrats, Republicans battle for Michigan Legislature

    The article discusses the battle for control of the Michigan House ahead of 2024 elections, highlighting targeted districts where Republicans and Democrats see chances to gain or defend seats.

    Bridge MichiganSmileyMcKinney
  3. Southwest Michigan congressional seat emerges as key battleground in fight for U.S. House

    Topic: Michigan’s 4th Congressional District (SW Michigan) race, with incumbent Rep. Bill Huizenga facing challenger Fritz McCann as a key battleground for control of the U.S. House.

    WZZMCoxMcKinneyVukasovichHuizenga
  4. Ann Arbor's District 23 House race splits on affordability fixes

    The article examines the Ann Arbor District 23 House race between Democrat Jason Morgan and Republican Miriam Corvino, focusing on affordability and related policy approaches.

    annarborrecord.comMcKinneyVukasovich

Donavan McKinney, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DDonavan McKinney 97.5% 98.0% 97.2% 0.9 pts –
RT.P. Nykoriak 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% 0.8 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Donavan McKinney

Donavan McKinney

Democratic Member of the Michigan House of Representatives from the 11th district (since 2023)

Donavan McKinney, a Democratic member of the Michigan House of Representatives who defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in the primary, is his party's 2026 nominee in Michigan's 13th congressional district against Republican T.P. Nykoriak.

Born 1992 · Detroit, Michigan

T.P. Nykoriak

Republican

T.P. Nykoriak, a Republican international trade analyst and perennial candidate, is his party's 2026 nominee in Michigan's 13th congressional district against Democrat Donavan McKinney, a state representative.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi200 contracts

Michigan's 13th District margin of victory

McKinney, 36+ pts
95.5%
McKinney, 39+ pts
85.0%
McKinney, 42+ pts
74.5%
McKinney, 45+ pts
64.5%
McKinney, 48+ pts
53.5%
McKinney, 51+ pts
42.5%
McKinney, 54+ pts
32.5%
McKinney, 57+ pts
21.5%
McKinney, 60+ pts
10.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$10.1K traded

MI-13 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
3.7%
Democrat 0-25%
3.8%
Democrat 25-35%
1.3%
Democrat 35-40%
4.3%
Democrat 40-45%
15.5%
Democrat 45-50%
23.5%
Democrat 50-55%
24.5%
Democrat 55-60%
23.0%
Democrat 60-65%
7.8%
Democrat 65%+
4.9%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$51.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Donavan McKinney: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 98.7% · $665 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Donavan McKinney: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 99.5% · $1.0K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Donavan McKinney

If the House member sworn in for MI-13 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Michigan

  1. Michigan SenateD69%
  2. Michigan GovernorD94%
  3. MI-01 HouseR89%
  4. MI-02 HouseR97%
  5. MI-03 HouseD95%
  6. MI-04 HouseR51%
  7. MI-05 HouseR95%
  8. MI-06 HouseD98%