US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NC-08 House.
The article covers the Union County, NC U.S. House District 8 race between Republican incumbent Mark Harris and Democratic challenger Colby Watson, with Green Party candidate Bo Whitehead also on the ballot.
The article notes that early voting has begun in Richmond County at the new Board of Elections office.
The page is a WSOC TV “The Political Beat Candidate Guide” for North Carolina House District 52, not NC-08.
Alma Adams (D) represents North Carolina’s 12th Congressional District. In the NC-12 race highlighted, she faces Republican challenger Jack Codiga.
Colby Watson is the Democratic candidate running in North Carolina House District 8 (NC-08), which includes a large portion of Mecklenburg County.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMark Harris | 95.4% | 95.4% | 95.6% | 0.2 pts | – | |
| DColby Watson | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 0.3 pts | – |
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Colby Watson, a Democrat and federal contractor, is his party's nominee for North Carolina's 8th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Mark Harris.
Mark Harris, a Republican Baptist pastor who has represented North Carolina's 8th congressional district since 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Colby Watson, a federal contractor, and Green Party nominee Bo Whitehead.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
North Carolina's 8th District margin of victory
| Harris, 2+ pts | 91.3% | |
| Harris, 5+ pts | 85.0% | |
| Harris, 8+ pts | 74.0% | |
| Harris, 11+ pts | 59.5% | |
| Harris, 14+ pts | 42.5% | |
| Harris, 17+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Harris, 20+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Harris, 23+ pts | 11.9% | |
| Harris, 26+ pts | 4.3% |
NC-08 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 18%+ | 26.5% | |
| Republican 15-18% | 15.6% | |
| Republican 12-15% | 12.5% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 14.9% | |
| Republican 6-9% | – | |
| Republican 3-6% | 3.4% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 1.6% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 3.6% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 6%+ | 0.7% |
Prices which party wins.
Mark Harris: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 96.3% · $7.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Mark Harris: Counted · bid 93.2% / ask 98.0% · $1.7K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Mark Harris
If the House member sworn in for NC-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
