US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NC-10 House.
Platform highlights: supports Medicare for All, seeks to reduce insurance claim denials and prior-authorization hurdles, improve access to care, and lower costs.
The Erie News Now article, authored by Ashley Bell and published October 15, 2026, reports on UPMC MammoMarathon marking its 20th anniversary.
The article by Ashley Bell, published October 16, 2026, reports that Ronnie O’Sullivan achieved a historic 153-point break in a single frame, marking a landmark moment in cue sports history.
The article, authored by Ashley Bell and published October 16, 2026, explores how arid communities in Kenya face food insecurity and turn to the doum palm tree as a coping resource.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPat Harrigan | 94.6% | 95.0% | 94.1% | 0.9 pts | – | |
| DAshley Bell | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 0.7 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Ashley Bell, a physician associate, won the Democratic primary for North Carolina's 10th congressional district in 2026 and faces Republican incumbent Pat Harrigan in the November general election.
Pat Harrigan, a Republican and former Army Special Forces officer who has represented North Carolina's 10th congressional district since 2025, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Democrat Ashley Bell, a physician associate.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
North Carolina's 10th District margin of victory
| Harrigan, 4+ pts | 87.2% | |
| Harrigan, 7+ pts | 76.5% | |
| Harrigan, 10+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Harrigan, 13+ pts | 55.5% | |
| Harrigan, 16+ pts | 45.0% | |
| Harrigan, 19+ pts | 33.0% | |
| Harrigan, 22+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Harrigan, 25+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Harrigan, 28+ pts | 8.6% |
NC-10 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 3.2% | |
| Republican 0-5% | – | |
| Republican 5-10% | 34.1% | |
| Republican 10-15% | – | |
| Republican 15-20% | 18.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 3.7% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 4.8% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 8.4% |
Prices which party wins.
Pat Harrigan: Counted · bid 94.3% / ask 95.7% · $1.8K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Pat Harrigan: Counted · bid 91.5% / ask 96.7% · $1.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Pat Harrigan
If the House member sworn in for NC-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
