US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-14 House.
Untitled design (2)PRIMARY RESULTS: Darializa Avila Chevalier wins NY-13, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez re-elected to NY-14, Ritchie Torres re-elected to NY-15 [...] FILE: Rep.
Ocasio-Cortez
ChevalierHealth [...] “When you pay for a game, you should own it,” said Rep. Torres. “Consumers must have the right to own, the right to play, and the right to transfer the games they buy.
The Washington Sun reports that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) is seeking reelection to her House seat and is expected to easily defeat Republican challenger Diamant Hysenaj in November.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 97.1% | 96.7% | 98.0% | 1.3 pts | – | |
| RDiamant Hysenaj | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.8 pts | – |
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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat who has represented New York's 14th congressional district since 2019, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican real estate developer Diamant Hysenaj.
Diamant Hysenaj, a Republican real estate developer, is the party's nominee for New York's 14th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the North Queens and East Bronx seat.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 14th District margin of victory
| Cortez, 34+ pts | 96.8% | |
| Cortez, 37+ pts | 96.0% | |
| Cortez, 40+ pts | 93.7% | |
| Cortez, 43+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Cortez, 46+ pts | 71.5% | |
| Cortez, 49+ pts | 54.5% | |
| Cortez, 52+ pts | 36.5% | |
| Cortez, 55+ pts | 20.5% | |
| Cortez, 58+ pts | 8.6% |
NY-14 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 2.5% | |
| Democrat 0-25% | 4.3% | |
| Democrat 25-35% | 4.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 4.3% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 31.5% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 35.5% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 19.5% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | – | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 65%+ | 3.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Counted · bid 96.2% / ask 97.2% · $2.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Counted · bid 97.0% / ask 98.9% · $1.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
If the House member sworn in for NY-14 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
