nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

NY-16 House 2026

96.8% DGeorge Latimer leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.0%
Kalshi
98.0%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
0.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NY-16 House.

  1. New York's 17th District forecast 2026 · 99chambers

    NY-16George LatimerJoseph Cinquemani>99%Dem.>99%Dem. NY-18Pat RyanJacqueline Auringer>99%Dem.98%Dem. [...] ## Past results

    99chambers.appCinquemani
  2. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  3. 101 Members of Congress Support Measure to Ask Rubio to Continue Waiver of Military Support for Azerbaijan - The Armenian Mirror-Spectator

    Friedman (D-CA), Robert Garcia (D-CA), Jimmy Gomez (D-CA), Young Kim (R-CA), Mike Levin (D-CA), Sam Liccardo (D-CA), Ted Lieu (D-CA), Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), Dave Min (D-CA), Kevin Mullin (D-CA), Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Luz…

    mirrorspectator.comWhitesidesLatimerTaylorSchneiderCarson
  4. At opening of Southern Land's Juliette in White Plains. - Westfair Communications

    The article covers the opening of Southern Land’s Juliette in White Plains, highlighting attendees and local officials involved in the event.

    westfaironline.comLatimer
  5. Juliette opens in White Plains - Westfair Communications

    The article covers the opening of Southern Land’s Juliette project in White Plains and mentions George Latimer in connection to U.S. Rep.

    westfaironline.comLatimer

George Latimer, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DGeorge Latimer 96.8% 96.0% 98.0% 2.0 pts –
RJoseph Cinquemani 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 0.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

George Latimer

George Latimer

Democratic U.S. Representative for New York's 16th congressional district (since 2025)

George Latimer, a Democrat who has represented New York's 16th congressional district since 2025 after serving as Westchester County Executive, faces Republican attorney Joseph Cinquemani in his 2026 re-election race.

Born 1953 · Mount Vernon, New York

Joseph Cinquemani

Republican

Joseph Cinquemani, a Republican attorney, is the party's nominee for New York's 16th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent George Latimer in the southern Westchester County seat.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.0K contracts

New York's 16th District margin of victory

Latimer, 32+ pts
96.2%
Latimer, 35+ pts
93.9%
Latimer, 38+ pts
89.1%
Latimer, 41+ pts
80.5%
Latimer, 44+ pts
70.0%
Latimer, 47+ pts
52.5%
Latimer, 50+ pts
37.0%
Latimer, 53+ pts
18.5%
Latimer, 56+ pts
7.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$20.3K traded

NY-16 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.1%
Democrat 0-20%
1.0%
Democrat 20-30%
0.5%
Democrat 30-35%
4.7%
Democrat 35-40%
4.0%
Democrat 40-45%
6.5%
Democrat 45-50%
–
Democrat 50-55%
32.0%
Democrat 55-60%
17.0%
Democrat 60%+
7.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$41.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

George Latimer: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 97.6% · $582 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi657 contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

George Latimer: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 99.7% · $383 within 5 pts

Contract shown: George Latimer

If the House member sworn in for NY-16 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in New York

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  2. NY-01 HouseR86%
  3. NY-02 HouseR86%
  4. NY-03 HouseD91%
  5. NY-04 HouseD92%
  6. NY-05 HouseD98%
  7. NY-06 HouseD98%
  8. NY-07 HouseD97%