nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

PA-13 House 2026

96.8% RJohn Joyce leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
96.2%
Kalshi
97.0%
Spread
0.8 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for PA-13 House.

  1. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian – Armenian Directory & News

    The article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.

    armenianclub.comDeanMcBathSmuckerUnderwoodGoodenSchrierSelfCammackHarderMorelleJacksonOlszewskiRutherfordJoyce
  2. Special election for vacant House seat set for March 25.

    The article reports that a special election has been scheduled for March 25 to fill a vacant U.S. House seat in Pennsylvania. It does not provide details about the specific district number or candidates in the excerpt.

    pro.stateaffairs.comArriagaFarnhamBradstock
  3. Rep. Ryan Bizzarro and Philadelphia House Delegation: House Majority Policy Committee to host tour and hearing in Philadelphia.

    The article announces that Rep. Ryan Bizzarro and the Philadelphia House Delegation will host a tour and a hearing in Philadelphia, led by the House Majority Policy Committee.

    pro.stateaffairs.comFarnham
  4. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  5. How Sha Na Na could help determine the House majority

    The Roll Call podcast discusses Pennsylvania political dynamics as races heat up, with a focus on swing districts and how various forces: including anti-corruption messaging and high-profile campaign events: are shaping…

    Roll CallWagnerFarnhamBauman
More coverage 3
  1. Patients First Act with ROOT Act Introduced in Senate

    The article discusses the Patients First Act with ROOT Act, introduced in the U.S. Senate as the companion to the House’s H.R. 9693.

    acr.orgJoyce
  2. Bresnahan vs. Cognetti: What’s at stake in Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District

    Topic: Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District race between incumbent Republican Rob Bresnahan and Democratic challenger Paige Cognetti (Scranton Mayor).

    heartlandsignal.comFarnham
  3. Candidates put rural costs, health care and data centers in focus | News

    The article covers a Pennsylvania House district candidate forum in Clarion, focusing on rural costs, health care, and data-center-related issues.

    DuBois Courier-ExpressFarnham

John Joyce, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RJohn Joyce 96.8% 96.2% 97.0% 0.8 pts –
DBeth Farnham 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Beth Farnham

Democratic

Beth Farnham, a Democrat and former Conewago Valley School District board member, is the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent John Joyce in a repeat of 2024.

John Joyce

John Joyce

Republican U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district (since 2019)

John Joyce, a Republican dermatologist who has represented Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district since 2019, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Democrat Beth Farnham, a former Conewago Valley School District board member.

Born 1957 · Altoona, Pennsylvania

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi865 contracts

Pennsylvania's 13th District margin of victory

Joyce, 29+ pts
89.1%
Joyce, 32+ pts
77.5%
Joyce, 35+ pts
66.5%
Joyce, 38+ pts
55.5%
Joyce, 41+ pts
44.5%
Joyce, 44+ pts
33.5%
Joyce, 47+ pts
21.5%
Joyce, 50+ pts
13.8%
Joyce, 53+ pts
7.1%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$21.2K traded

PA-13 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
0.1%
Republican 0-15%
0.3%
Republican 15-25%
4.5%
Republican 25-30%
–
Republican 30-35%
28.1%
Republican 35-40%
29.6%
Republican 40-45%
19.6%
Republican 45-50%
4.0%
Republican 50-55%
3.6%
Republican 55%+
0.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$17.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

John Joyce: Counted · bid 94.7% / ask 97.7% · $402 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.0K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

John Joyce: Counted · bid 95.6% / ask 98.5% · $786 within 5 pts

Contract shown: John Joyce

If the House member sworn in for PA-13 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Pennsylvania

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  5. PA-04 HouseD96%
  6. PA-05 HouseD98%
  7. PA-06 HouseD97%
  8. PA-07 HouseD86%