US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-03 House.
Lance Gooden (R) is the Republican candidate for Texas’s 5th Congressional District (TX-05) in the U.S. House. He faces Democratic challenger Chelsey Hockett (D) in the election.
The article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.
A Trump administration investment of $78 million is planned to bolster rural healthcare in Texas, including workforce expansion, facility upgrades, and improved equipment to bring better care closer to home. Rep.
All four of these Democrats are taking on Republican incumbents, and all four have signed a code of ethics with Courage for Democracy.
The article covers political races on Princeton ballots for Nov. 3, focusing on Congress, local government, school board, and two bond packages.
SelfKeith Self (R) is the incumbent U.S. Representative for Texas's 3rd Congressional District (TX-03) seeking a third term. He is facing Democratic challenger Evan Hunt.
SelfNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKeith Self | 94.6% | 94.5% | 94.6% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| DEvan Hunt | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 0.7 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Evan Hunt, a Democrat and retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, is the Democratic nominee for Texas's 3rd congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Keith Self.
Keith Self, a Republican who has represented Texas's 3rd congressional district since 2023, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Democrat Evan Hunt, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 3rd District margin of victory
| Self, 4+ pts | 88.1% | |
| Self, 7+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Self, 10+ pts | 66.5% | |
| Self, 13+ pts | 52.5% | |
| Self, 16+ pts | 38.0% | |
| Self, 19+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Self, 22+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Self, 25+ pts | 7.8% | |
| Self, 28+ pts | 7.7% implied |
TX-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 1.1% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.3% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 29.4% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 30.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 17.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 3.4% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 3.0% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 3.5% | |
| Republican 35%+ | 7.9% |
Prices which party wins.
Keith Self: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $1.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Keith Self: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.3% · $1.8K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Keith Self
If the House member sworn in for TX-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
