nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

TX-04 House 2026

96.1% RPat Fallon leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
95.7%
Kalshi
96.6%
Spread
0.9 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-04 House.

Top story

Aye, yo, you voting this year?

Jason Pearce 4 TX. I'm passionate about politics and love helping people become more involved and informed about what they're voting on.

sway.coPearce
  1. Avelo Adds 2 Florida Routes From McKinney Airport as ...
    tx3dnews.comPearce
  2. The Courage Caucus Is Coming. Four North Texans Want In.

    All four of these Democrats are taking on Republican incumbents, and all four have signed a code of ethics with Courage for Democracy.

    lonestarleft.comEllzeyPearceHuntHockett

Pat Fallon, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RPat Fallon 96.1% 95.7% 96.6% 0.9 pts –
DJason Pearce 0.9% 0.7% 1.2% 0.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Jason Pearce

Democratic

Jason Pearce, a Democrat and construction project manager, is the Democratic nominee for Texas's 4th congressional district in 2026, running against Republican incumbent Pat Fallon.

Pat Fallon

Pat Fallon

Republican U.S. Representative for Texas's 4th congressional district (since 2021)

Pat Fallon, a Republican businessman who has represented Texas's 4th congressional district since 2021, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Democrat Jason Pearce, a construction project manager.

Born 1967 · Pittsfield, Massachusetts

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi748 contracts

Texas's 4th District margin of victory

Fallon, 8+ pts
81.5%
Fallon, 11+ pts
72.5%
Fallon, 14+ pts
62.5%
Fallon, 17+ pts
53.5%
Fallon, 20+ pts
43.5%
Fallon, 23+ pts
34.5%
Fallon, 26+ pts
24.5%
Fallon, 29+ pts
17.5%
Fallon, 32+ pts
8.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.2K traded

TX-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
2.6%
Republican 0-5%
4.3%
Republican 5-10%
16.8%
Republican 10-15%
23.1%
Republican 15-20%
23.0%
Republican 20-25%
30.0%
Republican 25-30%
2.4%
Republican 30-35%
5.2%
Republican 35%+
5.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$79.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Pat Fallon: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 96.9% · $1.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi5.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Pat Fallon: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 97.6% · $648 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Pat Fallon

If the House member sworn in for TX-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Texas

  1. Texas SenateD62%
  2. Texas GovernorR77%
  3. TX-01 HouseR97%
  4. TX-02 HouseR93%
  5. TX-03 HouseR95%
  6. TX-05 HouseR98%
  7. TX-06 HouseR95%
  8. TX-07 HouseD96%