US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-06 House.
The article covers House Speaker Mike Johnson’s stop in McAllen, Texas, highlighting the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) as a pivotal battleground for control of the House.
The article covers the Texas 14th Congressional District race between incumbent Republican Randy Weber and Democratic challenger Thurman Bartie.
All four of these Democrats are taking on Republican incumbents, and all four have signed a code of ethics with Courage for Democracy.
Daniel Arrigg Koh, 41, the Democratic nominee, his background (born in Andover; son of Howard Koh, former Obama administration health official; mother Claudia Arrigg, an ophthalmologist).
Here’s a concise, directly useful summary based on the provided page and your query.
The article reports that the Trump administration announced $78 million in aid for Texas, highlighting statements from Rep. Jake Ellzey (TX-06) emphasizing benefits to rural Texas communities.
Focus: Ongoing counting of absentee, mobile teams, and diplomatic-consular posts (DKP) in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The CMS press release covers a $78 million funding award aimed at bolstering rural healthcare workforce, chronic disease prevention, and facility upgrades across Texas.
The page appears to be a Frederick News-Post profile or piece about the 6th Congressional District, featuring Robin Ficker as a candidate.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJake Ellzey | 94.9% | 94.8% | 95.5% | 0.7 pts | – | |
| DDanny Minton | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Danny Minton, a Democrat and sales representative, is the Democratic nominee for Texas's 6th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Jake Ellzey.
Jake Ellzey, a Republican former Navy fighter pilot who has represented Texas's 6th congressional district since 2021, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Democrat Danny Minton, a sales representative.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 6th District margin of victory
| Ellzey, 7+ pts | 85.0% | |
| Ellzey, 10+ pts | 72.5% | |
| Ellzey, 13+ pts | 61.5% | |
| Ellzey, 16+ pts | 48.5% | |
| Ellzey, 19+ pts | 34.5% | |
| Ellzey, 22+ pts | 22.5% | |
| Ellzey, 25+ pts | 12.6% | |
| Ellzey, 28+ pts | 5.8% | |
| Ellzey, 31+ pts | 6.9% implied |
TX-06 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 1.9% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.6% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 18.9% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 22.4% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 32.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 18.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 4.6% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 3.7% | |
| Republican 35%+ | 2.7% |
Prices which party wins.
Jake Ellzey: Counted · bid 94.3% / ask 95.4% · $9.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jake Ellzey: Counted · bid 93.6% / ask 97.5% · $1.0K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jake Ellzey
If the House member sworn in for TX-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
