nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

TX-07 House 2026

96.4% DLizzie Fletcher leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.3%
Kalshi
96.4%
Spread
0.1 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-07 House.

  1. Texas Midterm Elections 2026: Key Races, Candidates and Past Results
    NBC NewsFletcherCarter
  2. Members of Congress Hold Hearing in Austin to Investigate ICE Shootings Across Texas

    AUSTIN, TEXAS – On Thursday, October 15th, Congressman Greg Casar (D-Texas), alongside Representatives Bennie G.

    casar.house.govOfficialFletcher
  3. For Congressional District 7: Democrat Lizzie Fletcher

    Audacious is how we’d describe Republican Alexander Hale’s campaign for the 7th Congressional District. He has stepped up and challenged U.S. Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, a popular four-term Democrat, in a safely blue seat.

    Houston ChronicleFletcherHaleAkin

Lizzie Fletcher, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DLizzie Fletcher 96.4% 96.3% 96.4% 0.1 pts –
RAlexander Hale 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 0.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tx-07/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tx-07">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Alexander Hale

Republican

Alexander Hale, a Republican consultant, won a primary runoff to become the Republican nominee for Texas's 7th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Lizzie Fletcher.

Lizzie Fletcher

Lizzie Fletcher

Democratic U.S. Representative for Texas's 7th congressional district (since 2019)

Lizzie Fletcher, a Democratic attorney who has represented Texas's 7th congressional district since 2019, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Republican Alexander Hale, a consultant.

Born 1975 · Houston, Texas

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi460 contracts

Texas's 7th District margin of victory

Fletcher, 21+ pts
93.2%
Fletcher, 24+ pts
87.1%
Fletcher, 27+ pts
81.0%
Fletcher, 30+ pts
68.5%
Fletcher, 33+ pts
57.5%
Fletcher, 36+ pts
45.5%
Fletcher, 39+ pts
35.0%
Fletcher, 42+ pts
22.5%
Fletcher, 45+ pts
11.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$14.4K traded

TX-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.5%
Democrat 0-10%
1.1%
Democrat 10-20%
3.1%
Democrat 20-25%
3.4%
Democrat 25-30%
10.9%
Democrat 30-35%
27.0%
Democrat 35-40%
21.9%
Democrat 40-45%
20.0%
Democrat 45-50%
–
Democrat 50%+
3.8%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$30.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Lizzie Fletcher: Counted · bid 95.6% / ask 97.0% · $4.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi40.1K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Lizzie Fletcher: Counted · bid 95.8% / ask 97.0% · $5.4K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Lizzie Fletcher

If the House member sworn in for TX-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Texas

  1. Texas SenateD62%
  2. Texas GovernorR77%
  3. TX-01 HouseR97%
  4. TX-02 HouseR93%
  5. TX-03 HouseR95%
  6. TX-04 HouseR96%
  7. TX-05 HouseR98%
  8. TX-06 HouseR95%