US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-10 House.
The article reports that since an February contract was signed, Mur has visited the region twice to meet RS authorities, and paid out $14,000 to U.S. lawmakers and candidates.
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The Forward Party has endorsed two more candidates, including a prospective contest in Texas against Republican Chris Gober for the TX-10 seat.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RChris Gober | 91.2% | 91.0% | 91.5% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| DCaitlin Rourk | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 0.1 pts | – |
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Caitlin Rourk, a Democrat and U.S. Army veteran, is the Democratic nominee for the open 10th district of Texas in 2026 against Republican Chris Gober, former chief lawyer of Elon Musk's America PAC.
Chris Gober, a Republican political-law attorney and former chief lawyer of Elon Musk's America PAC, is the Republican nominee for the open 10th district of Texas in 2026 against Democrat Caitlin Rourk.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 10th District margin of victory
| Gober, 3+ pts | 77.5% | |
| Gober, 6+ pts | 67.5% | |
| Gober, 9+ pts | 57.5% | |
| Gober, 12+ pts | 47.5% | |
| Gober, 15+ pts | 38.0% | |
| Gober, 18+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Gober, 21+ pts | 22.5% | |
| Gober, 24+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Gober, 27+ pts | 7.5% |
TX-10 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 7.5% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 8.5% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 32.0% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 24.6% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 8.8% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 5.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 4.6% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 3.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Chris Gober: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 92.0% · $5.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Chris Gober: Counted · bid 90.5% / ask 92.6% · $2.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Chris Gober
If the House member sworn in for TX-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
