US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-16 House.
The Roll Call podcast discusses Pennsylvania political dynamics as races heat up, with a focus on swing districts and how various forces: including anti-corruption messaging and high-profile campaign events: are shaping…
“I’m not exaggerating, South Texas will literally decide the majority in the Congress,” he said.
Michigan received a legal path to add two transfers midseason in 2026: tight end Alex Bauman (Miami/Tulane) and defensive back Jeremiah Earby (Boise State).
Article covers the 2026 race for the redrawn Congressional District 28 in South Texas, featuring incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar and Republican challenger Tano Tijerina.
The page is a statement from Congresswoman Veronica Escobar (TX-16) reacting to media inquiries about the El Paso Chamber of Commerce’s effort to rename the Bridge of the Americas after Donald Trump.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DVeronica Escobar | 97.8% | 97.6% | 97.9% | 0.3 pts | – | |
| RAdam Bauman | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.2 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Adam Bauman, a Republican business owner, is the party's nominee for Texas's 16th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Veronica Escobar in the El Paso-based seat.
Veronica Escobar, a Democrat who has represented Texas's 16th congressional district since 2019 and was previously El Paso county judge, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Republican Adam Bauman.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 16th District margin of victory
| Escobar, 21+ pts | 94.8% | |
| Escobar, 24+ pts | 81.5% | |
| Escobar, 27+ pts | 68.5% | |
| Escobar, 30+ pts | 55.5% | |
| Escobar, 33+ pts | 45.5% | |
| Escobar, 36+ pts | 36.5% | |
| Escobar, 39+ pts | 27.5% | |
| Escobar, 42+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Escobar, 45+ pts | 9.3% |
TX-16 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.4% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.3% | |
| Democrat 5-15% | 1.1% implied | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 1.2% implied | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 3.0% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 25.7% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 22.9% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 24.3% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 11.6% | |
| Democrat 45%+ | 3.1% |
Prices which party wins.
Veronica Escobar: Counted · bid 97.3% / ask 97.9% · $915 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Veronica Escobar: Counted · bid 96.2% / ask 99.6% · $1.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Veronica Escobar
If the House member sworn in for TX-16 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
