US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-20 House.
The article covers House Speaker Mike Johnson’s stop in McAllen, Texas, highlighting the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) as a pivotal battleground for control of the House.
Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A
Though he’ll take every seat he can get while trying to hold onto a narrow U.S. House majority, even Speaker of the House Mike Johnson doesn’t seem to have confidence that CD20 is flippable .
In 2002, when he was 28, Castro ran for Texas’ 125th House district seat, and in the Democratic primary, defeated incumbent Arthur Reyna. In the general election, he defeated Republic nominee Nelson Balido.
CastroThe article profiles Rep. Lloyd Castor? (likely Lloyd Doggett? No: the provided content mentions Castro, a Texas representative) focusing on his re-election prospects in a remapped district and immigration reform…
The CNBC piece discusses South Texas races that could decide control of the House, focusing on three border districts where Latino voters’ concerns: affordability, immigration, and local issues: could shift support.
The article profiles a Republican candidate challenging Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro in Texas’ CD-20 (San Antonio area).
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJoaquin Castro | 96.1% | 96.0% | 96.5% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| REdgardo Rafael Baez | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 0.2 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Edgardo Rafael Baez, a Republican attorney, is the party's nominee for Texas's 20th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Joaquin Castro in the San Antonio-based seat.
Joaquin Castro, a Democrat who has represented Texas's 20th congressional district since 2013 and previously served in the Texas House, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Republican Edgardo Baez, an attorney.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 20th District margin of victory
| Castro, 27+ pts | 93.9% | |
| Castro, 30+ pts | 86.3% | |
| Castro, 33+ pts | 79.0% | |
| Castro, 36+ pts | 70.5% | |
| Castro, 39+ pts | 62.5% | |
| Castro, 42+ pts | 49.5% | |
| Castro, 45+ pts | 37.5% | |
| Castro, 48+ pts | 24.5% | |
| Castro, 51+ pts | 12.5% |
TX-20 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-15% | 0.7% | |
| Democrat 15-25% | 1.1% implied | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | – | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 17.0% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 24.5% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 28.6% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 4.9% | |
| Democrat 55%+ | 3.2% |
Prices which party wins.
Joaquin Castro: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 97.5% · $5.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Joaquin Castro: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 98.0% · $216 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Joaquin Castro
If the House member sworn in for TX-20 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
