US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-33 House.
The article discusses James Talarico’s stance on immigration enforcement, noting that his position is more moderate than some progressive Democrats who advocate abolishing ICE.
AllredThe article highlights Talarico's fundraising record in the third quarter, noting that his $64 million haul surpasses past Texas Democrats and sets a record for U.S. Senate candidates.
The article notes that James Talarico’s Texas Senate campaign raised $64 million, a figure that surpasses past Texas Democratic fundraising benchmarks for comparable quarters.
AllredThe piece covers reactions from Rio Grande Valley viewers to the Texas Senate debate between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Colin Allred.
AllredNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DColin Allred | 95.8% | 95.6% | 97.2% | 1.6 pts | – | |
| RPatrick Gillespie | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 0.8 pts | – |
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Colin Allred, a Democrat who represented Texas's 32nd congressional district from 2019 to 2025 and was his party's 2024 U.S. Senate nominee, faces Republican Patrick Gillespie for Texas's 33rd district seat in 2026.
Patrick Gillespie, a Republican customs broker, is his party's nominee for Texas's 33rd congressional district in 2026, facing Democrat Colin Allred, a former U.S. representative and the 2024 Democratic U.S. Senate nominee.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 33rd District margin of victory
| Allred, 30+ pts | 96.6% | |
| Allred, 33+ pts | 95.9% | |
| Allred, 36+ pts | 93.9% | |
| Allred, 39+ pts | 86.9% | |
| Allred, 42+ pts | 74.5% | |
| Allred, 45+ pts | 59.5% | |
| Allred, 48+ pts | 41.5% | |
| Allred, 51+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Allred, 54+ pts | 12.5% |
TX-33 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.3% | |
| Democrat 0-20% | 2.1% | |
| Democrat 20-30% | 0.9% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 1.7% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 26.5% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 17.0% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 24.5% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 31.5% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 2.7% | |
| Democrat 60%+ | 0.4% |
Prices which party wins.
Colin Allred: Counted · bid 93.7% / ask 97.5% · $4.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Colin Allred: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 99.5% · $696 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Colin Allred
If the House member sworn in for TX-33 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
