nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

TX-37 House 2026

97.8% DGreg Casar leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.6%
Kalshi
98.0%
Spread
1.1 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-37 House.

  1. Casar presses feds for Austin ICE shooting evidence; lawmakers seek reforms

    Greg Casar (TX-37) pressed federal authorities over the Austin ICE shooting case, accusing the U.S. Department of Homeland Security of obstructing local investigators who seek key evidence.

    Yahoo NewsCasar
  2. AOC, Khanna among Democrats joining Sanders-Casar push to ban ‘artificial superintelligence’

    The article reports that notable Democrats, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) and Ro Khanna, joined Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep.

    Inside AI PolicyCasar
  3. Democrats hold shadow hearing in Austin on ICE shootings as Republicans skip event

    Greg Casar participated in a Democratic shadow hearing in Austin about ICE shootings, criticizing the current system and pushing for reform to make immigration enforcement legal, orderly, and safe.

    KEYECasar
  4. Ordaz, Romero offer different priorities in Texas House District 79 race

    This El Paso Matters article covers the Texas House District 79 race between Democrat Claudia Ordaz (incumbent, seeking a third term) and Republican Jesse Romero (retired Realtor, Navy veteran).

    El Paso MattersPeña
  5. Three candidates seek Texas House District 57 seat in Denton County

    The article covers three candidates running for Texas House District 57 in Denton County for the November 3 ballot: Republican incumbent Richard Hayes, Democrat Ray Stith, and Libertarian Darren Hamilton.

    denton.cityPeñaEarlyJacksonShepard
More coverage 4
  1. A look at House District 94 candidates’ war chests going into early voting

    The article analyzes campaign fundraising for Texas House District 94, focusing on the race between Republican Cheryl Bean and Democrat Katie O’Brien Duzan.

    thefortworth.orgPeñaHookEarly
  2. Geren runs on record of property tax relief against challenger in Fort Worth Texas House race

    Here’s a concise, directly useful summary based on the provided page and your query.

    thefortworth.orgPeñaJacksonMintonReynoldsShepard
  3. Houston-area lawmakers join Austin hearing on ICE use of force after shooting

    The article notes that U.S. Representatives Lizzie Fletcher, Sylvia Garcia, and Al Green are set to join a Texas-focused hearing on ICE use of force after a shooting. The forum is hosted by Rep. Bennie G.

    KPRCCasar
  4. Democratic lawmakers demand answers on ICE shootings, detention conditions in Texas hearing

    Greg Casar (TX-37) helped lead a “shadow hearing” outside official channels, focusing on immigration issues in Texas.

    KVUECasar

Greg Casar, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DGreg Casar 97.8% 97.6% 98.0% 0.3 pts –
RLauren Peña 1.1% 0.7% 1.8% 1.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Greg Casar

Greg Casar

Democratic U.S. Representative for Texas's 35th congressional district (since 2023)

Greg Casar, a Democrat who has represented Texas's 35th congressional district since 2023 and chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, runs in the redrawn 37th district in 2026 against Republican Lauren Peña.

Born 1989 · Houston, Texas

Lauren Peña

Republican

Lauren Peña, a paralegal and Republican, is the Republican nominee for Texas's 37th congressional district in 2026, facing Democrat Greg Casar, the U.S. representative for the 35th district.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.1K contracts

Texas's 37th District margin of victory

Casar, 49+ pts
95.4%
Casar, 52+ pts
87.2%
Casar, 55+ pts
78.5%
Casar, 58+ pts
69.5%
Casar, 61+ pts
60.5%
Casar, 64+ pts
48.5%
Casar, 67+ pts
38.0%
Casar, 70+ pts
25.0%
Casar, 73+ pts
11.9%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$14.0K traded

TX-37 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
1.3%
Democrat 0-35%
1.1%
Democrat 35-45%
3.8%
Democrat 45-50%
2.7%
Democrat 50-55%
13.9%
Democrat 55-60%
–
Democrat 60-65%
31.5%
Democrat 65-70%
26.5%
Democrat 70-75%
7.7%
Democrat 75%+
4.3%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$45.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Greg Casar: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 98.1% · $757 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Greg Casar: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 99.6% · $941 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Greg Casar

If the House member sworn in for TX-37 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Texas

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  8. TX-06 HouseR95%